Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: contradictory_fresh_evidence
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21 06:20 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures price pressure skews down due to fresh China price-softness indications and supply expansion headlines outweighing demand-support narratives. 60 down stable 24h false 66
lithium B-LI-002 Over the next 6h, downside momentum is likely to weaken (stabilisation/mean-reversion risk rises) as fresh EV-demand and policy-support items accumulate after the initial bearish pulse. 55 mixed accelerating 6h false 66
lithium B-LI-003 Within 24h, policy/capex signals (critical minerals funding, recycling capacity build-out, charging build-out) provide a price floor narrative that can offset near-term bearish price prints. 52 up fading 24h false 66
lithium B-LI-004 Reversal risk is elevated: mixed policy headlines and rapid alternation of demand-positive vs price-negative items can flip the short-horizon bias quickly if a second bearish price-confirmation arrives (or fails to). 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260321-062000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T06:20:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures price pressure skews down due to fresh China price-softness indications and supply expansion headlines outweighing demand-support narratives.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "china_policy", "battery_supply_chain", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 6h, downside momentum is likely to weaken (stabilisation/mean-reversion risk rises) as fresh EV-demand and policy-support items accumulate after the initial bearish pulse.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Within 24h, policy/capex signals (critical minerals funding, recycling capacity build-out, charging build-out) provide a price floor narrative that can offset near-term bearish price prints.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "battery_supply_chain", "refining_capacity", "ev_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-LI-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-004", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Reversal risk is elevated: mixed policy headlines and rapid alternation of demand-positive vs price-negative items can flip the short-horizon bias quickly if a second bearish price-confirmation arrives (or fails to).", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "china_policy", "ev_demand", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bearish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bearish", "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002", "B-LI-004" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "contradictory_fresh_evidence", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Fresh bearish price/supply cues coexist with fresh EV/policy-support cues; directional bias is therefore fragile." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Regulatory/legal uncertainty around EV standards creates short-horizon demand ambiguity." }, { "flag": "data_authority_mix", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Recent directional items are dominated by mixed/uneven source authority; treat conviction as capped." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_short_bias", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Additional bearish price-confirmation within the next 6h (another downside print / supply-surplus confirmation) without offsetting high-authority demand support." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Sustained cluster of demand-positive policy/EV headlines over the next 6\u201312h while bearish price-softness headlines fail to repeat." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Contradictory policy + pricing items continue to alternate within adjacent hourly buckets (rising whipsaw pattern)." }, { "action_label": "stay_flat", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "No fresh evidence for >6h (signal sparsity increases) and net sentiment remains inside [-10,+10]." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 2, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, 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"fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 2, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 14, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -25, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 5, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } } }