Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: supply_overhang_background (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T21:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains net supportive (demand-side narratives such as grid modernisation and electrification dominate recent attention), biasing price expectations upward. 60 up accelerating 24h false 44
copper B2 Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment skews modestly bullish as China policy/clean-energy planning headlines continue to be interpreted as copper-demand supportive. 57 up stable 6h false 44
copper B3 Over the next 24h, upside in copper sentiment is partly capped by supply-side overhang from mine upgrade/expansion headlines (Chile/US projects), limiting conviction in sustained upside follow-through. 46 down fading 24h false 44
copper B4 Reversal risk over the next 24h is elevated by trade-policy / strategic-minerals rhetoric: small headline changes can flip risk sentiment quickly, producing whipsaw even if the base demand narrative stays supportive. 42 mixed stable 24h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "copper_20260321T210000Z_6B",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains net supportive (demand-side narratives such as grid modernisation and electrification dominate recent attention), biasing price expectations upward.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "electric grid modernisation / renewable build-out narrative intensity",
 "EV/electrification demand framing persistence",
 "broad energy-transition narrative reinforcement"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3",
 "B4"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment skews modestly bullish as China policy/clean-energy planning headlines continue to be interpreted as copper-demand supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "China clean-energy planning / grid build-out implication for copper intensity",
 "recent headline flow concentration in demand-linked themes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B4"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, upside in copper sentiment is partly capped by supply-side overhang from mine upgrade/expansion headlines (Chile/US projects), limiting conviction in sustained upside follow-through.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine upgrade/expansion signalling (medium/longer-horizon supply expectations)",
 "producer/project pipeline optimism"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B4",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Reversal risk over the next 24h is elevated by trade-policy / strategic-minerals rhetoric: small headline changes can flip risk sentiment quickly, producing whipsaw even if the base demand narrative stays supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "US trade-policy / strategic minerals messaging",
 "macro-risk sensitivity (USD/risk-off linkage via narrative channels)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3",
 "B4"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "supply_overhang_background",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supply expansion/upgrade headlines persist in the background, acting as a cap on bullish conviction despite demand-heavy narrative flow."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy / strategic-minerals narrative can flip quickly and amplify short-horizon volatility in sentiment."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier_tail",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Evidence mix includes a meaningful low-authority tail and several single-source VIP items; treated as low-weight context."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If demand-linked narratives remain dominant without a fresh, high-authority opposing policy shock inside the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority trade-policy/China-policy headline materially contradicts the current demand-supportive framing."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If policy headlines cluster (trade/strategic minerals) and contradiction signals rise, even while the net direction stays bullish."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish pressure fades (directional score drops below +20) or contradiction ratio spikes without confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed driver arenas (policy vs demand vs supply) and conservative fragility scoring.",
 "Per-signal v2 physics not available in provided input; used temporal_profile + evidence_recency_proxy as recency/velocity proxies for weighting.",
 "Applied low-weight treatment to single-source VIP items (echo-risk) and older labour-dispute outlier as background only."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}