Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: supply_overhang_background (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T21:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B1 | Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains net supportive (demand-side narratives such as grid modernisation and electrification dominate recent attention), biasing price expectations upward. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| copper | B2 | Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment skews modestly bullish as China policy/clean-energy planning headlines continue to be interpreted as copper-demand supportive. | 57 | up | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
| copper | B3 | Over the next 24h, upside in copper sentiment is partly capped by supply-side overhang from mine upgrade/expansion headlines (Chile/US projects), limiting conviction in sustained upside follow-through. | 46 | down | fading | 24h | false | 44 |
| copper | B4 | Reversal risk over the next 24h is elevated by trade-policy / strategic-minerals rhetoric: small headline changes can flip risk sentiment quickly, producing whipsaw even if the base demand narrative stays supportive. | 42 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "copper_20260321T210000Z_6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures sentiment remains net supportive (demand-side narratives such as grid modernisation and electrification dominate recent attention), biasing price expectations upward.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"electric grid modernisation / renewable build-out narrative intensity",
"EV/electrification demand framing persistence",
"broad energy-transition narrative reinforcement"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3",
"B4"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures sentiment skews modestly bullish as China policy/clean-energy planning headlines continue to be interpreted as copper-demand supportive.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"China clean-energy planning / grid build-out implication for copper intensity",
"recent headline flow concentration in demand-linked themes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B4"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, upside in copper sentiment is partly capped by supply-side overhang from mine upgrade/expansion headlines (Chile/US projects), limiting conviction in sustained upside follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine upgrade/expansion signalling (medium/longer-horizon supply expectations)",
"producer/project pipeline optimism"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B4",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Reversal risk over the next 24h is elevated by trade-policy / strategic-minerals rhetoric: small headline changes can flip risk sentiment quickly, producing whipsaw even if the base demand narrative stays supportive.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US trade-policy / strategic minerals messaging",
"macro-risk sensitivity (USD/risk-off linkage via narrative channels)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3",
"B4"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "supply_overhang_background",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Supply expansion/upgrade headlines persist in the background, acting as a cap on bullish conviction despite demand-heavy narrative flow."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy / strategic-minerals narrative can flip quickly and amplify short-horizon volatility in sentiment."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier_tail",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Evidence mix includes a meaningful low-authority tail and several single-source VIP items; treated as low-weight context."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If demand-linked narratives remain dominant without a fresh, high-authority opposing policy shock inside the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority trade-policy/China-policy headline materially contradicts the current demand-supportive framing."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If policy headlines cluster (trade/strategic minerals) and contradiction signals rise, even while the net direction stays bullish."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If bullish pressure fades (directional score drops below +20) or contradiction ratio spikes without confirmation."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 86,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from mixed driver arenas (policy vs demand vs supply) and conservative fragility scoring.",
"Per-signal v2 physics not available in provided input; used temporal_profile + evidence_recency_proxy as recency/velocity proxies for weighting.",
"Applied low-weight treatment to single-source VIP items (echo-risk) and older labour-dispute outlier as background only."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}