Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_legal_headline_sensitivity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-6h-up-001 Copper futures bias modestly higher over the next 6 hours, supported by reinforcement of electrification / grid-upgrade / EV demand narratives. 58 up accelerating 6h false 58
copper B-copper-24h-up-002 Copper futures remain net-up biased over the next 24 hours, but gains are fragile and sensitive to policy/legal headline turns. 62 up stable 24h false 58
copper B-copper-reversal-risk-003 Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated versus a clean trend due to policy/legal sensitivity and mixed-quality marginal signals. 55 mixed accelerating 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260321T120000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-up-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures bias modestly higher over the next 6 hours, supported by fresh reinforcement of electrification / grid-upgrade / EV-linked demand narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Industrial/electrification demand narrative reinforcement (EV adoption; grid modernisation)",
 "Recent clustering of supportive cross-domain signals within the last ~24h"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh legal/trade-policy risk headline sensitivity (short-horizon)",
 "Supply-chain disruption narrative pockets with mixed authority"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-up-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures remain net-up biased over the next 24 hours, but gains are fragile and sensitive to policy/legal headline turns.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Persistent energy-transition capex narrative (EV/grid/renewables buildout)",
 "Mine/supply-chain attention increases (policy + strategic minerals framing)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Trade-policy and legal uncertainty can flip risk appetite quickly",
 "Evidence authority mix includes non-trivial low-tier share (echo-risk pockets)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-reversal-risk-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated versus a clean trend due to policy/legal sensitivity and mixed-quality marginal signals.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Short-horizon legal/trade-policy risk anomaly appearing within last ~6h",
 "Policy/trade narratives can create fast contradiction spikes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No confirmed high-authority, ultra-recent (<=2h) bearish kill-switch signal observed in inputs"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-6h-up-001",
 "B-copper-24h-up-002",
 "B-copper-reversal-risk-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "policy_legal_headline_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "evidence": "Fresh risk anomaly tied to legal/trade-policy theme inside last ~6h can create fast sentiment flips."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_echo_risk_pockets",
 "severity": "medium",
 "evidence": "Several supporting narratives show substantial low-authority share; treat marginal accelerations as fragile until corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike_watch",
 "severity": "medium",
 "evidence": "Bearish risk pocket can temporarily dominate despite broader bullish baseline; monitor for follow-through."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain if directional_state=bullish AND contradiction_ratio stays <=0.45 AND no fresh (<=2h) high-trust bearish counter-signal emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.55 OR a new bearish bucket appears with directional_score_signed <= -20."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if policy/legal narrative produces repeated fresh anomalies within consecutive 1h buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if directional_score_signed moves into (-20,+20) band for >=3 consecutive hours and conviction falls below 45."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 45,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -30,
 "acceleration_score": -75,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 30,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -30,
 "acceleration_score": -60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -55,
 "acceleration_score": -65,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 45,
 "acceleration_score": 100,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 45,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory objects provided in input payload; used conservative legacy aggregation + recency heuristics.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change marked as new_bullish (unknown prior).",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no opposing high-trust signal observed with age <= 2h in provided inputs)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}