Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_legal_headline_sensitivity
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-6h-up-001 | Copper futures bias modestly higher over the next 6 hours, supported by reinforcement of electrification / grid-upgrade / EV demand narratives. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| copper | B-copper-24h-up-002 | Copper futures remain net-up biased over the next 24 hours, but gains are fragile and sensitive to policy/legal headline turns. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| copper | B-copper-reversal-risk-003 | Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated versus a clean trend due to policy/legal sensitivity and mixed-quality marginal signals. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260321T120000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-6h-up-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures bias modestly higher over the next 6 hours, supported by fresh reinforcement of electrification / grid-upgrade / EV-linked demand narratives.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Industrial/electrification demand narrative reinforcement (EV adoption; grid modernisation)",
"Recent clustering of supportive cross-domain signals within the last ~24h"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh legal/trade-policy risk headline sensitivity (short-horizon)",
"Supply-chain disruption narrative pockets with mixed authority"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-24h-up-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures remain net-up biased over the next 24 hours, but gains are fragile and sensitive to policy/legal headline turns.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent energy-transition capex narrative (EV/grid/renewables buildout)",
"Mine/supply-chain attention increases (policy + strategic minerals framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Trade-policy and legal uncertainty can flip risk appetite quickly",
"Evidence authority mix includes non-trivial low-tier share (echo-risk pockets)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-reversal-risk-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated versus a clean trend due to policy/legal sensitivity and mixed-quality marginal signals.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Short-horizon legal/trade-policy risk anomaly appearing within last ~6h",
"Policy/trade narratives can create fast contradiction spikes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No confirmed high-authority, ultra-recent (<=2h) bearish kill-switch signal observed in inputs"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-6h-up-001",
"B-copper-24h-up-002",
"B-copper-reversal-risk-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "policy_legal_headline_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"evidence": "Fresh risk anomaly tied to legal/trade-policy theme inside last ~6h can create fast sentiment flips."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_echo_risk_pockets",
"severity": "medium",
"evidence": "Several supporting narratives show substantial low-authority share; treat marginal accelerations as fragile until corroborated."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"evidence": "Bearish risk pocket can temporarily dominate despite broader bullish baseline; monitor for follow-through."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain if directional_state=bullish AND contradiction_ratio stays <=0.45 AND no fresh (<=2h) high-trust bearish counter-signal emerges."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.55 OR a new bearish bucket appears with directional_score_signed <= -20."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if policy/legal narrative produces repeated fresh anomalies within consecutive 1h buckets."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if directional_score_signed moves into (-20,+20) band for >=3 consecutive hours and conviction falls below 45."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 45,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -30,
"acceleration_score": -75,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 30,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -30,
"acceleration_score": -60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -55,
"acceleration_score": -65,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 45,
"acceleration_score": 100,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 45,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory objects provided in input payload; used conservative legacy aggregation + recency heuristics.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change marked as new_bullish (unknown prior).",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no opposing high-trust signal observed with age <= 2h in provided inputs)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}