Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-24h-up-001 |
Copper futures bias upward over next 24h, supported by policy/strategic-minerals and electrification-demand narratives; no near-term supply/inventory shock catalyst. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
| copper |
B-copper-6h-up-002 |
Over the next 6h, copper futures more likely to hold a mild upward drift than to sell off, but momentum is vulnerable to fading after the latest headline-driven impulse. |
55 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_6B_copper_20260321T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-24h-up-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures sentiment bias remains upward over the next 24h, supported by fresh policy/strategic-minerals and electrification-demand narratives, but without a clear near-term supply/inventory shock catalyst.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Limited explicit inventory/spot-tightness evidence in admitted signals",
"Policy/trade headlines can whipsaw quickly"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-6h-up-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures are more likely to hold a mild upward drift than to sell off, but momentum is vulnerable to fading after the latest headline-driven impulse.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"usd_strength",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Sparse high-trust, time-critical catalysts inside the last 6h beyond policy headlines"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-24h-up-001",
"B-copper-6h-up-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"details": "A meaningful share of supportive narratives are persistent/slow-burn (weeks), so near-term direction can weaken without warning if fresh confirmation stops."
},
{
"flag": "policy_trade_headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"details": "Trade/strategic-minerals policy signals are supportive but can reverse quickly on new tariffs, exemptions, or diplomatic turns."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_intraday",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "copper",
"details": "Within the last 24h, signal density clusters into a few buckets; between those, conviction is capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_singletons_present",
"severity": "low",
"market": "copper",
"details": "Several VIP/risk items are single-source and low-authority; treated as low-weight until corroborated."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh supportive copper-linked policy/demand signals persist across the next 6h without a credible opposing macro/China-demand shock signal."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "A high-authority trade/tariff headline (US/China) prints within a 2h window, raising contradiction risk abruptly."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "A fresh, high-trust opposing signal appears (<=2h) that directly implies demand downgrade, inventory build, or rapid USD-strength impulse."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains inside neutral band (|score| < 20) for 6 consecutive hourly buckets with no fresh evidence."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (fresh opposing signal <=2h, high authority, contradiction spike)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 22,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 28,
"acceleration_score": 28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -44,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided in inputs; used heuristic recency weighting via evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp and temporal_profile.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set using unknown_prior -> new_bullish for non-neutral current state.",
"VIP/risk singleton items treated as low-weight due to single-source and/or low authority tier signals."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}