- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: freight_logistics_shock (RF-COFFEE-LOGISTICS-001)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T10:45:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-001 |
Coffee futures face net upward pressure as global logistics disruption/freight-cost shock raises delivered-cost risk and near-term supply tightness concerns. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
66 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-002 |
Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures bias remains mildly upward but with choppy price action as macro-geopolitical headlines dominate. |
55 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
66 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-003 |
Bullish coffee pressure can fade quickly if freight/logistics conditions normalise or if the market re-prices the shock as non-coffee-specific (risk-on reversal). |
38 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
66 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260321T104500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T10:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures face net upward pressure as global logistics disruption/freight-cost shock raises delivered-cost risk and near-term supply tightness concerns.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures bias remains mildly upward but with choppy price action as macro-geopolitical headlines dominate.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"currency_brl_usd"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Bullish coffee pressure can fade quickly if freight/logistics conditions normalise or if the market re-prices the shock as non-coffee-specific (risk-on reversal).",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"macro"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-LOGISTICS-001",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "high",
"label": "freight_logistics_shock",
"detail": "Freight/rerouting and broader trade-flow disruption narratives are a dominant driver; can amplify short-term volatility."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-MAPPING-002",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "indirect_driver_concentration",
"detail": "A meaningful portion of admitted evidence is macro/logistics-policy rather than crop-specific coffee fundamentals; raises fragility."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-AUTHORITY-003",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "mixed_source_authority",
"detail": "Evidence bundles show a notable low-authority share / singleton outliers; conviction capped versus a crop-specific weather/supply confirmation."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-REVERSAL-004",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "headline_reversal_risk",
"detail": "Reversal risk elevated if geopolitical/logistics headlines de-escalate or are repriced as transitory."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/freight disruption confirmation persists into the next cycle and no coffee-supply-easing signals appear."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional Middle East/shipping-route headlines land (especially within 0\u20136h recency window)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation or freight-cost normalisation headlines appear (opposite-direction catalyst within <= 6h)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If coffee-specific weather/crop-condition signals remain absent and macro/logistics signals cool for >24h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"stale_evidence_count": 4,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"stale_evidence_count": 4,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 23,
"acceleration_score": 21,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 23,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['coffee'].",
"Key admitted drivers were logistics/freight and Brazil policy risk; coffee-specific weather/crop evidence was limited/neutral, so conviction capped and fragility elevated.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were provided in input; reversal risk set from mixed/indirect driver structure rather than hard counter-signals."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}