• subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: freight_logistics_shock (RF-COFFEE-LOGISTICS-001)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T10:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-COFFEE-001 Coffee futures face net upward pressure as global logistics disruption/freight-cost shock raises delivered-cost risk and near-term supply tightness concerns. 58 up accelerating 24h false 66
coffee B-COFFEE-002 Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures bias remains mildly upward but with choppy price action as macro-geopolitical headlines dominate. 55 up stable 6h false 66
coffee B-COFFEE-003 Bullish coffee pressure can fade quickly if freight/logistics conditions normalise or if the market re-prices the shock as non-coffee-specific (risk-on reversal). 38 down fading 24h false 66
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260321T104500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T10:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures face net upward pressure as global logistics disruption/freight-cost shock raises delivered-cost risk and near-term supply tightness concerns.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, coffee futures bias remains mildly upward but with choppy price action as macro-geopolitical headlines dominate.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "currency_brl_usd"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Bullish coffee pressure can fade quickly if freight/logistics conditions normalise or if the market re-prices the shock as non-coffee-specific (risk-on reversal).",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "macro"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-001",
 "B-COFFEE-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COFFEE-001",
 "B-COFFEE-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-LOGISTICS-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "high",
 "label": "freight_logistics_shock",
 "detail": "Freight/rerouting and broader trade-flow disruption narratives are a dominant driver; can amplify short-term volatility."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-MAPPING-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "indirect_driver_concentration",
 "detail": "A meaningful portion of admitted evidence is macro/logistics-policy rather than crop-specific coffee fundamentals; raises fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-AUTHORITY-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "mixed_source_authority",
 "detail": "Evidence bundles show a notable low-authority share / singleton outliers; conviction capped versus a crop-specific weather/supply confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-COFFEE-REVERSAL-004",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "headline_reversal_risk",
 "detail": "Reversal risk elevated if geopolitical/logistics headlines de-escalate or are repriced as transitory."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics/freight disruption confirmation persists into the next cycle and no coffee-supply-easing signals appear."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional Middle East/shipping-route headlines land (especially within 0\u20136h recency window)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If credible de-escalation or freight-cost normalisation headlines appear (opposite-direction catalyst within <= 6h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If coffee-specific weather/crop-condition signals remain absent and macro/logistics signals cool for >24h."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 23,
 "acceleration_score": 21,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 23,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['coffee'].",
 "Key admitted drivers were logistics/freight and Brazil policy risk; coffee-specific weather/crop evidence was limited/neutral, so conviction capped and fragility elevated.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in input; reversal risk set from mixed/indirect driver structure rather than hard counter-signals."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}