Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (ICE KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: cross_domain_proxy_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T22:31:30Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated shipping/freight disruption risk and trade-policy uncertainty tied to major origins (especially Brazil). |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade is plausible if the most recent logistics/geopolitical constraints do not escalate or begin to resolve. |
56 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
Directional conviction remains capped because the freshest evidence is largely cross-commodity logistics/policy rather than direct coffee crop-condition/weather confirmation. |
62 |
flat |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-2026-03-21T22:31:30Z-coffee-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T22:31:30Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (ICE KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated shipping/freight disruption risk and trade-policy uncertainty tied to major origins (especially Brazil).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight",
"currency_brl_usd"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of coffee-specific, high-trust weather/crop-condition updates in the most recent window (signal relies on indirect macro/logistics proxies)."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade is plausible if the most recent logistics/geopolitical constraints do not escalate or begin to resolve.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh policy/logistics headlines remain clustered in the last ~24\u201336 hours (continued reinforcement would reduce fade risk)."
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Directional conviction remains capped because the freshest evidence is largely cross-commodity logistics/policy rather than direct coffee crop-condition/weather confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather",
"crop_conditions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If a high-trust weather/crop shock headline appears, this cap can lift quickly (either bullish or bearish)."
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "cross_domain_proxy_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Most admitted drivers are logistics/policy/macro proxies; coffee-specific weather/crop-condition confirmation is not dominant in the freshest window."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_logistics_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Freight/logistics disruption narratives can reverse quickly (resolution headlines can unwind risk premium)."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Several evidence bundles indicate a high low-authority share; treat directional inference as moderately fragile."
},
{
"flag": "policy_uncertainty_brazil_channel",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Brazil policy/trade narrative is a plausible coffee driver; however, mapping to near-term futures direction remains probabilistic without direct export flow confirmation."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional corroboration within 6\u201324h that logistics/policy constraints are impacting coffee export flows or near-term availability."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any rapid sequence of escalation/de-escalation headlines in global shipping lanes or origin trade policy that changes perceived supply continuity."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A high-trust counter-signal appears (e.g., improving freight conditions, policy rollback, or bearish coffee-specific crop/weather update) inside a <=2h window."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence remains indirect (proxy-only) and fresh coffee-specific fundamentals remain absent, keep conviction gating conservative."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly: coffee.",
"Admitted evidence emphasises logistics/trade-policy narratives with plausible coffee transmission; direct coffee weather/crop-condition drivers are under-represented in freshest window.",
"State_change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}