Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (ICE KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: cross_domain_proxy_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T22:31:30Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated shipping/freight disruption risk and trade-policy uncertainty tied to major origins (especially Brazil). 58 up stable 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-002 Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade is plausible if the most recent logistics/geopolitical constraints do not escalate or begin to resolve. 56 mixed accelerating 6h false 58
coffee B-coffee-003 Directional conviction remains capped because the freshest evidence is largely cross-commodity logistics/policy rather than direct coffee crop-condition/weather confirmation. 62 flat stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-2026-03-21T22:31:30Z-coffee-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T22:31:30Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (ICE KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from elevated shipping/freight disruption risk and trade-policy uncertainty tied to major origins (especially Brazil).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "shipping_freight",
 "currency_brl_usd"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of coffee-specific, high-trust weather/crop-condition updates in the most recent window (signal relies on indirect macro/logistics proxies)."
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated; a fast fade is plausible if the most recent logistics/geopolitical constraints do not escalate or begin to resolve.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh policy/logistics headlines remain clustered in the last ~24\u201336 hours (continued reinforcement would reduce fade risk)."
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Directional conviction remains capped because the freshest evidence is largely cross-commodity logistics/policy rather than direct coffee crop-condition/weather confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather",
 "crop_conditions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If a high-trust weather/crop shock headline appears, this cap can lift quickly (either bullish or bearish)."
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "cross_domain_proxy_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Most admitted drivers are logistics/policy/macro proxies; coffee-specific weather/crop-condition confirmation is not dominant in the freshest window."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_logistics_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Freight/logistics disruption narratives can reverse quickly (resolution headlines can unwind risk premium)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Several evidence bundles indicate a high low-authority share; treat directional inference as moderately fragile."
 },
 {
 "flag": "policy_uncertainty_brazil_channel",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Brazil policy/trade narrative is a plausible coffee driver; however, mapping to near-term futures direction remains probabilistic without direct export flow confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional corroboration within 6\u201324h that logistics/policy constraints are impacting coffee export flows or near-term availability."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any rapid sequence of escalation/de-escalation headlines in global shipping lanes or origin trade policy that changes perceived supply continuity."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "A high-trust counter-signal appears (e.g., improving freight conditions, policy rollback, or bearish coffee-specific crop/weather update) inside a <=2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence remains indirect (proxy-only) and fresh coffee-specific fundamentals remain absent, keep conviction gating conservative."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly: coffee.",
 "Admitted evidence emphasises logistics/trade-policy narratives with plausible coffee transmission; direct coffee weather/crop-condition drivers are under-represented in freshest window.",
 "State_change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}