Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_coffee_specific
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term logistics/supply-chain disruption risk is increasing effective landed costs, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 6–24 hours. | 61 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 66 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Brazil-linked policy uncertainty is adding upside risk premium to coffee futures (export flow / currency pass-through channel), but evidence is indirect and fragile. | 56 | up | stable | 6h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260321T190000Z-coffee-KC",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term logistics/supply-chain disruption risk is increasing effective landed costs, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"global logistics disruption headlines (multi-commodity spillover)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"rapid de-escalation in trade-route disruption risk",
"fresh evidence of improving export flow/port throughput"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Brazil-linked policy uncertainty is adding upside risk premium to coffee futures (export flow / currency pass-through channel), but evidence is indirect and fragile.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"currency_brl_usd",
"policy / trade uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"clarifying policy signals that reduce export frictions",
"fresh market-credible indications of improved Brazilian supply availability"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_coffee_specific",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "coffee",
"detail": "Most admitted evidence is macro/logistics/policy spillover rather than coffee-specific crop/weather confirmation."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "coffee",
"detail": "Several high-heat narratives have older initial timestamps (>72h); treated as background and downweighted despite recent resurfacing."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "coffee",
"detail": "Logistics/policy headlines can reverse quickly; directional thesis is sensitive to de-escalation headlines."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics disruption confirmations persist in the next 6h bucket(s) while contradiction ratio stays <= 0.30."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises >= 0.35 or late-breaking opposing macro/policy signal appears within <=2h."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If net directional score drops below +15 across two consecutive 1h buckets (momentum fade / thesis erosion)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score remains between -10 and +10 for >=4 consecutive buckets (rangebound/mixed regime)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"Directional inference is dominated by logistics/policy spillover signals; coffee-specific weather/crop-condition confirmation is not present in the admitted set.",
"Latest available input evidence timestamps extend to 2026-03-21T18:31:37Z; no late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggered."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}