Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_coffee_specific
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term logistics/supply-chain disruption risk is increasing effective landed costs, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 6–24 hours. 61 up accelerating 24h false 66
coffee B-coffee-002 Brazil-linked policy uncertainty is adding upside risk premium to coffee futures (export flow / currency pass-through channel), but evidence is indirect and fragile. 56 up stable 6h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260321T190000Z-coffee-KC",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term logistics/supply-chain disruption risk is increasing effective landed costs, biasing coffee futures upward over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "global logistics disruption headlines (multi-commodity spillover)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "rapid de-escalation in trade-route disruption risk",
 "fresh evidence of improving export flow/port throughput"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Brazil-linked policy uncertainty is adding upside risk premium to coffee futures (export flow / currency pass-through channel), but evidence is indirect and fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply",
 "currency_brl_usd",
 "policy / trade uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "clarifying policy signals that reduce export frictions",
 "fresh market-credible indications of improved Brazilian supply availability"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_coffee_specific",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "coffee",
 "detail": "Most admitted evidence is macro/logistics/policy spillover rather than coffee-specific crop/weather confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "coffee",
 "detail": "Several high-heat narratives have older initial timestamps (>72h); treated as background and downweighted despite recent resurfacing."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "coffee",
 "detail": "Logistics/policy headlines can reverse quickly; directional thesis is sensitive to de-escalation headlines."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics disruption confirmations persist in the next 6h bucket(s) while contradiction ratio stays <= 0.30."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises >= 0.35 or late-breaking opposing macro/policy signal appears within <=2h."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If net directional score drops below +15 across two consecutive 1h buckets (momentum fade / thesis erosion)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score remains between -10 and +10 for >=4 consecutive buckets (rangebound/mixed regime)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "Directional inference is dominated by logistics/policy spillover signals; coffee-specific weather/crop-condition confirmation is not present in the admitted set.",
 "Latest available input evidence timestamps extend to 2026-03-21T18:31:37Z; no late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}