Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-21 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-001 |
Near-term coffee futures price bias is modestly upward, supported by Brazil policy uncertainty and broader trade/logistics friction that can tighten effective export availability. |
56 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-002 |
Short-horizon (next 6h) signal remains bullish but fragile: recent logistics/policy headline pressure is still present, yet evidence quality is mixed and may fade quickly. |
54 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-003 |
There is meaningful pullback/reversal risk if recent risk headlines cool, because several admitted signals are indirect (macro/logistics) rather than coffee crop-condition or FX-specific confirmations. |
46 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260321T070000Z-coffee-KC",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures price bias is modestly upward, supported by Brazil policy uncertainty and broader trade/logistics friction that can tighten effective export availability.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight",
"currency_brl_usd (not directly observed in inputs; increases fragility)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Short-horizon (next 6h) signal remains bullish but fragile: recent logistics/policy headline pressure is still present, yet evidence quality is mixed and may fade quickly.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"headline-risk concentration"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "There is meaningful pullback/reversal risk if recent risk headlines cool, because several admitted signals are indirect (macro/logistics) rather than coffee crop-condition or FX-specific confirmations.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity in coffee-specific crop_conditions",
"indirect mapping from logistics narratives",
"authority-tier dispersion"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple key narratives originated >72h ago; current bias relies partly on persistence rather than new coffee-specific fundamentals."
},
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_mapping",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Several admitted drivers are logistics/geopolitical in nature; direct coffee crop-condition / BRLUSD confirmation is limited in the provided inputs."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Evidence bundles show high low-authority share in multiple trends, increasing fragility."
},
{
"flag": "currency_blindspot_brlusd",
"severity": "low",
"details": "BRL/USD driver arena requested but no explicit FX signal present in admitted items."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh coffee-specific confirmations (crop/weather/ICE-related) appear within the next cycle while logistics/policy risk remains elevated."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If headline pressure decelerates (directional score drops below +20) or any fresh opposite-direction signal arrives with high authority."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction/dispersion rises or evidence remains sparse while directional bias stays near threshold (\u00b120)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions array provided; reversal risk is driven by near-threshold directional bias + indirect driver mix rather than measured contradiction spikes.",
"FX (BRL/USD) driver arena requested but not directly represented in admitted signals; fragility increased accordingly.",
"Some high-heat narratives appear logistics/geopolitical and may not be coffee-specific; mapped to coffee only when plausibly connected to shipping/origin supply."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}