Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T18:02:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Near-term crude benchmarks retain upward pressure as geopolitical conflict and Middle East-linked security narratives elevate perceived supply-risk premia. 62 up fading 24h false 68
crude_oil B2 Maritime chokepoint / shipping-route risk narratives bias crude pricing upward via potential flow interruptions and higher delivered-cost uncertainty. 58 up accelerating 6h false 68
crude_oil B3 Refinery outage / maintenance risk can intermittently cap crude demand (runs) and create short-lived pullbacks even amid broader supply-risk headlines. 46 down stable 24h false 68
crude_oil B4 Macro-demand uncertainty (policy/central-bank narrative spillover) intermittently counterweights supply-risk premia, increasing reversal risk from headline spikes. 44 mixed stable 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260321T180200Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T18:02:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term crude benchmarks retain upward pressure as geopolitical conflict and Middle East-linked security narratives elevate perceived supply-risk premia.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitics: US/Iran/Iraq conflict risk premium",
 "supply_disruption: elevated disruption probability rhetoric",
 "risk_sentiment: headline-driven volatility"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B4"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Maritime chokepoint / shipping-route risk narratives bias crude pricing upward via potential flow interruptions and higher delivered-cost uncertainty.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: maritime chokepoints / route risk",
 "supply_disruption: transit interruption risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refinery outage / maintenance risk can intermittently cap crude demand (runs) and create short-lived pullbacks even amid broader supply-risk headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "refining: outages/maintenance reducing crude throughput",
 "network effects: product-market disruption vs crude-demand lag"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B4",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro-demand uncertainty (policy/central-bank narrative spillover) intermittently counterweights supply-risk premia, increasing reversal risk from headline spikes.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand: growth/rates uncertainty",
 "risk sentiment: de-risking episodes"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Direction supported by fast-moving geopolitics/shipping headlines that can reverse quickly without confirmation in hard balances."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "risk_flag": "data_quality_mixed_authority",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Signal set includes a meaningful share of low-authority or single-source items; confidence capped despite broad theme reinforcement."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "risk_flag": "operational_crosscurrents",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Refinery outage/maintenance risk can damp crude runs and temporarily counter supply-risk premium effects."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If shipping/chokepoint risk narratives persist or broaden while no credible de-escalation headlines appear in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high (geopolitics + shipping) and directional score oscillates >20 points across adjacent buckets."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If refinery-outage/run-cut narratives strengthen OR macro-demand risk headlines dominate for >3 consecutive hours."
 },
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score remains in the [-20, +20] neutral band for >6 consecutive hours (rangebound regime)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 15,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly: crude_oil.",
 "No trend_state_memory provided; prior state assumed neutral for state-change classification (new_bullish).",
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied; reversal risk derived from mixed driver set (geopolitics/shipping vs macro/refining)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}