Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T18:02:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B1 |
Near-term crude benchmarks retain upward pressure as geopolitical conflict and Middle East-linked security narratives elevate perceived supply-risk premia. |
62 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B2 |
Maritime chokepoint / shipping-route risk narratives bias crude pricing upward via potential flow interruptions and higher delivered-cost uncertainty. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B3 |
Refinery outage / maintenance risk can intermittently cap crude demand (runs) and create short-lived pullbacks even amid broader supply-risk headlines. |
46 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| crude_oil |
B4 |
Macro-demand uncertainty (policy/central-bank narrative spillover) intermittently counterweights supply-risk premia, increasing reversal risk from headline spikes. |
44 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260321T180200Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T18:02:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude benchmarks retain upward pressure as geopolitical conflict and Middle East-linked security narratives elevate perceived supply-risk premia.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics: US/Iran/Iraq conflict risk premium",
"supply_disruption: elevated disruption probability rhetoric",
"risk_sentiment: headline-driven volatility"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B4"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Maritime chokepoint / shipping-route risk narratives bias crude pricing upward via potential flow interruptions and higher delivered-cost uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: maritime chokepoints / route risk",
"supply_disruption: transit interruption risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refinery outage / maintenance risk can intermittently cap crude demand (runs) and create short-lived pullbacks even amid broader supply-risk headlines.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"refining: outages/maintenance reducing crude throughput",
"network effects: product-market disruption vs crude-demand lag"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B4",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro-demand uncertainty (policy/central-bank narrative spillover) intermittently counterweights supply-risk premia, increasing reversal risk from headline spikes.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand: growth/rates uncertainty",
"risk sentiment: de-risking episodes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Direction supported by fast-moving geopolitics/shipping headlines that can reverse quickly without confirmation in hard balances."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"risk_flag": "data_quality_mixed_authority",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Signal set includes a meaningful share of low-authority or single-source items; confidence capped despite broad theme reinforcement."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"risk_flag": "operational_crosscurrents",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Refinery outage/maintenance risk can damp crude runs and temporarily counter supply-risk premium effects."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping/chokepoint risk narratives persist or broaden while no credible de-escalation headlines appear in the next 6h."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high (geopolitics + shipping) and directional score oscillates >20 points across adjacent buckets."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If refinery-outage/run-cut narratives strengthen OR macro-demand risk headlines dominate for >3 consecutive hours."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score remains in the [-20, +20] neutral band for >6 consecutive hours (rangebound regime)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 15,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly: crude_oil.",
"No trend_state_memory provided; prior state assumed neutral for state-change classification (new_bullish).",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied; reversal risk derived from mixed driver set (geopolitics/shipping vs macro/refining)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}