Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T14:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1-crude_oil-6h-up Front-month Brent/crude oil pricing bias remains upward over the next 6 hours as near-term supply-risk narratives (geopolitics + maritime security) dominate marginal demand concerns. 62 up stable 6h false 58
crude_oil B2-crude_oil-24h-up-fragile Over the next 24 hours, crude oil upside is present but fragile: the same geopolitics that support a premium can reverse quickly, and macro-policy headlines can cap follow-through. 57 up fading 24h false 58
crude_oil B3-crude_oil-volatility-skew Intraday crude oil volatility risk is elevated due to event-driven headline sensitivity (shipping/security/inventory policy), even if direction remains net-bullish. 66 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260321T140000Z-crude_oil-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1-crude_oil-6h-up", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Front-month Brent/crude oil pricing bias remains upward over the next 6 hours as near-term supply-risk narratives (geopolitics + maritime security) dominate marginal demand concerns.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Geopolitical risk premium linked to Iran/IRGC/security incident threads (T-002, T-023, T-039)", "Maritime chokepoint / shipping-security attention (T-001, T-009)", "Inventory draw framing from US energy agencies (T-006; plus seed-level EIA anomaly RA-002)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Rapid de-escalation / diplomatic reversal headlines that compress risk premium", "Unexpected inventory builds / weak refinery runs", "Risk-off macro shock that hits demand expectations" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2-crude_oil-24h-up-fragile", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, crude oil upside is present but fragile: the same geopolitics that support a premium can reverse quickly, and macro-policy headlines can cap follow-through.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Persistent multi-source conflict/security narrative density (T-015, T-012, T-031, T-014)", "Energy-security framing around Russia/OPEC+ themes (T-012)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Macro tightening / demand-destruction emphasis (T-008) becoming dominant", "Lack of corroboration for single-source disruption outliers (e.g., VIP-001)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3-crude_oil-volatility-skew", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Intraday crude oil volatility risk is elevated due to event-driven headline sensitivity (shipping/security/inventory policy), even if direction remains net-bullish.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "High-frequency geopolitical/security newsflow concentration", "Multiple single-source operational outliers creating noise and gap risk (VIP lane; risk anomalies)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "If newsflow quiets and market reverts to rangebound trade" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1-crude_oil-6h-up", "B2-crude_oil-24h-up-fragile", "B3-crude_oil-volatility-skew" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag": "geopolitical_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "high", "market": "crude_oil", "details": "Directional support is heavily tied to geopolitical/maritime narratives that can reverse quickly on de-escalation." }, { "risk_flag": "single_source_outlier_noise", "severity": "medium", "market": "crude_oil", "details": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source (echo-risk flagged), raising false-positive and timing risk." }, { "risk_flag": "macro_demand_uncertainty", "severity": "medium", "market": "crude_oil", "details": "Macro-policy attention (Fed/central-bank framing) can cap upside by shifting focus to demand." }, { "risk_flag": "momentum_fade_after_peak", "severity": "medium", "market": "crude_oil", "details": "Signal-timeseries shows a mild fade after an earlier bullish peak, increasing reversal sensitivity despite net-bullish state." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Bullish direction persists while contradiction stays low and new supportive supply-risk/inventory-draw evidence arrives." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any escalation/de-escalation headline cluster, maritime incident update, or inventory-policy surprise within the next session." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Directional score continues falling for multiple hourly buckets or fresh high-authority counter-signal emerges." }, { "action": "hard_de_risk_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Late-breaking, high-authority bearish catalyst appears within a 2-hour window and contradiction ratio spikes materially." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 82, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 86, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 85, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 90, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 90, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 92, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 94, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 93, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 96, "bearish_pressure_score": 4, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 95, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 93, "bearish_pressure_score": 7, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 91, "bearish_pressure_score": 9, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 5, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory v2 fields provided; used velocity_hint + timestamps + temporal_profile as recency proxies.", "No explicit prior market state supplied; state_change set to new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }