Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Near-term upside risk premium in Brent remains elevated due to intensifying Iran-related geopolitical conflict narratives and associated supply-route disruption risk (e.g., Strait of Hormuz/chokepoints framing). | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 61 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Brent is more likely than not to trade higher over the next 24 hours as geopolitics-linked disruption risk stays the dominant fresh driver versus softer/mixed macro-demand signals. | 65 | up | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Directional impulse is vulnerable to rapid reversal because the dominant drivers are event-driven headlines (conflict escalation / maritime chokepoints) rather than slow-moving inventory fundamentals. | 58 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snapshot-2026-03-21T12:00:00Z-crude_oil-6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term upside risk premium in Brent remains elevated due to intensifying Iran-related geopolitical conflict narratives and associated supply-route disruption risk (e.g., Strait of Hormuz/chokepoints framing).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"supply_disruption",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential de-escalation headlines could rapidly compress risk premium",
"Macro-demand sensitivity to policy/financial conditions"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent is more likely than not to trade higher over the next 24 hours as geopolitics-linked disruption risk stays the dominant fresh driver versus softer/mixed macro-demand signals.",
"probability_pct": 65,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"supply_disruption",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Refining/operational normalisation signals reducing perceived tightness",
"Policy-driven risk-off move dampening energy complex"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Directional impulse is vulnerable to rapid reversal because the dominant drivers are event-driven headlines (conflict escalation / maritime chokepoints) rather than slow-moving inventory fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping_freight",
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Sustained multi-source escalation could re-accelerate upside momentum"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002",
"B-crude-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"severity": "high",
"note": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical/conflict escalation narratives; price response can gap on incremental updates."
},
{
"flag": "momentum_cooling_after_peak",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Recent directional score peaked earlier in the session and has eased; risk of consolidation/mean reversion."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_vip_noise",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Several VIP outliers are single-source and should be treated as low-weight context rather than core directional evidence."
},
{
"flag": "macro_policy_crosscurrents",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Policy/macro narrative (rates/central banks) may intermittently counteract geopolitics-led bid."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority escalation/disruption headlines arrive within the next 6h and directional score re-accelerates."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If conflict/chokepoint discourse broadens (more sources/entities) or shipping risk metrics appear in fresh signals."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible de-escalation/ceasefire or route-security confirmation hits and contradiction ratio rises sharply in the next 2\u20136h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score falls below +20 while contradiction ratio remains elevated (>0.28) indicating mixed tape."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 57,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory fields present in provided 5B payload; used conservative recency/heat/authority heuristics from timestamps and temporal_profile.",
"VIP outliers and certain risk anomalies are single-source; admitted as low-weight context only."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}