Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T02:36:12Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-24H-UPSIDE-001 Over the next 24h, uranium price bias remains skewed upward on fresh policy-support and supply-risk narrative reinforcement. 60 up accelerating 24h false 48
uranium B-UR-6H-MOMENTUM-002 Over the next 6h, short-term sentiment momentum is strengthening (recent evidence clusters in the last ~3h). 58 up accelerating 6h false 48
uranium B-UR-RISK-003 Reversal risk is contained unless a credible de-escalation/policy-pullback headline arrives; current feed shows low direct counter-pressure. 62 mixed stable 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260320T023600Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T02:36:12Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-UPSIDE-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium price bias remains skewed upward on fresh policy-support and supply-risk narrative reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "supply_contracting"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-MOMENTUM-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, short-term sentiment momentum is strengthening (recent evidence clusters in the last ~3h).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-RISK-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is contained unless a credible de-escalation/policy-pullback headline arrives; current feed shows low direct counter-pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_nuclear",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-24H-UPSIDE-001",
 "B-UR-6H-MOMENTUM-002",
 "B-UR-RISK-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Dominant drivers are policy/geopolitical supply narratives; these tend to gap risk intraday even without explicit contradictions."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several admitted themes have a high low-authority share despite some Tier-A anchors; increases fragility vs sudden narrative refutes."
 },
 {
 "flag": "intraday_signal_sparsity",
 "severity": "low",
 "rationale": "Most intraday buckets are supported mainly by persistent background themes; conviction improves only in the most recent buckets."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh policy/supply-risk reinforcement persists and no credible opposing cluster emerges within a 2h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if a high-authority (Tier A) opposing headline lands (sanctions relief, supply normalisation, policy reversal)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade reversal watch if contradiction ratio rises materially (multiple fresh opposing signals within <=6h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Adopt flat stance label only if fresh directional reinforcement fades for >24h and evidence becomes predominantly stale."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "velocity_score": -5,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
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 },
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 },
 {
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 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
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 "buckets": [
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 13,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_state_memory/prior market_state provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' (unknown_prior).",
 "Contradictions array empty in provided 5B output; contradiction_ratio kept low but non-zero to reflect headline risk."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}