Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T22:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Silver futures have a mild upside bias over the next 6h as precious-metals risk/flow narratives and sector-specific silver growth themes dominate the freshest admitted evidence. 58 up accelerating 6h false 64
silver B-SI-002 Upside in silver futures is fragile over the next 24h; macro rate-expectations / USD / real-rates narratives can flip quickly and cap follow-through. 46 mixed stable 24h false 64
silver B-SI-003 Mine-supply / exploration headlines are present but largely low-density or dormant for near-term price impact; they act more as background volatility risk than as a strong directional driver. 55 flat fading 24h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260320T224500Z-silver", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T22:45:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SI-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Silver futures have a mild upside bias over the next 6h as precious-metals risk/flow narratives and sector-specific silver growth themes dominate the freshest admitted evidence.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "precious_metals_flows", "risk/safe-haven spillover from gold narratives", "sector silver market growth themes (Metals Focus)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-002" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Upside in silver futures is fragile over the next 24h; macro rate-expectations / USD / real-rates narratives can flip quickly and cap follow-through.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "usd_strength", "real_rates", "interest-rate expectations uncertainty" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-001", "B-SI-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-003", "market": "silver", "claim": "Mine-supply / exploration headlines are present but largely low-density or dormant for near-term price impact; they act more as background volatility risk than as a strong directional driver.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply", "exploration / corporate updates (VIP lane, single-source)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SI-001", "B-SI-002", "B-SI-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-SI-001", "market": "silver", "type": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "details": "Portions of the mine-supply / exploration theme are present but temporally dormant for near-term impact; suppressed in directional synthesis." }, { "flag_id": "RF-SI-002", "market": "silver", "type": "macro_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Rate-expectations / USD / real-rates narratives are active but directionally ambiguous in provided inputs; increases reversal sensitivity." }, { "flag_id": "RF-SI-003", "market": "silver", "type": "data_sparsity", "severity": "medium", "details": "No explicit per-signal physics fields (trend_physics / trend_state_memory) were provided; momentum/acceleration inferred from recency/heat proxies." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence concentration continuing in the most recent 3\u20136h buckets, without a contradiction spike." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A fresh (<=2h) opposing macro driver appears (USD/real-rates shock proxy) alongside a sharp rise in contradiction ratio." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action": "hard_de_risk_watch", "trigger_condition": "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggers (fresh opposing high-authority evidence within 2h) and fragility rises to >= 70." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Directional score oscillates within [-20, +20] while fragility remains elevated (>=60)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 7, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 7, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 33, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 9, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used recency/heat/shape proxies plus driver mapping to silver arenas.", "Prior state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change set to new_bullish based on current signed directional score >= +20." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }