Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-SILVER-RECENCY-FADE
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T14:35:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SILVER-001 | Over the next 24h, bias sideways-to-slightly-up; supported by safe-haven flows but lacking fresh silver-specific confirmation. | 54 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 66 |
| silver | B-SILVER-002 | Over the next 6h, more likely to consolidate (range trade) than trend; earlier bullish impulse cooling without a new catalyst. | 57 | flat | fading | 6h | false | 66 |
| silver | B-SILVER-003 | Supply-side (mine expansion) modestly increases downside/mean-reversion risk on 24h horizon by capping upside enthusiasm. | 46 | down | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260320T143500Z-silver", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T14:35:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures bias is sideways-to-slightly-up, supported by precious-metals safe-haven flow narratives, but lacking strong fresh silver-specific confirmation in the most recent hours.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "precious_metals_flows", "geopolitical_risk (safe-haven bid proxy)", "usd_strength / real_rates sensitivity (macro linkage)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SILVER-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver futures are more likely to consolidate (range trade) than trend, as the earlier bullish impulse appears to be cooling without a new catalyst.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "momentum fade after earlier demand impulse", "rates-expectations headline flow dominating the most recent update window (directionally ambiguous)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SILVER-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-003", "market": "silver", "claim": "Supply-side narrative (mine expansion/exploration) modestly increases downside/mean-reversion risk on a 24h horizon by capping upside enthusiasm, even if not immediately price-setting.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SILVER-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SILVER-001", "B-SILVER-002", "B-SILVER-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-SILVER-RECENCY-FADE", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "description": "Most supportive directional impulse appears earlier in the last-24h window; most recent update window is less directionally decisive." }, { "flag_id": "RF-SILVER-STALE-OVERHANG", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "description": "Several silver-linked narratives are present but not freshly accelerating (stale suppression applied)." }, { "flag_id": "RF-SILVER-MACRO-DEPENDENCY", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "description": "Signal quality depends heavily on macro/rates/safe-haven narratives rather than clean silver-specific catalysts." }, { "flag_id": "RF-SILVER-SEED-RISK-LEGAL", "market": "silver", "severity": "low", "description": "A seed-level legal/compliance anomaly appears in the input stream; low confidence, but can amplify fragility if it becomes market-salient." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Remain in rangebound mode while directional_score_signed stays between -20 and +20 and no fresh high-authority silver-specific catalyst arrives." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if a new macro/rates headline arrives within <=2h that materially changes contradiction/consensus across precious metals." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Maintain reversal watch while momentum is weakening and fragility remains elevated (>=60), especially if USD/real-rates narratives flip." }, { "market": "silver", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to watch_long_bias only if fresh (<=6h) silver-linked safe-haven/flow evidence corroborates and directional_score_signed rises to >= +20 with falling fragility." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "silver" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 9, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 9, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": 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"net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 23, "acceleration_score": 21, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 11, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 11, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 9, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 5, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 3, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'.", "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; used timestamp recency proxies + temporal_profile shapes for conservative momentum/reversal inference.", "State_change set to 'unchanged' because no reliable prior-state memory was provided in the input payload.", "Timeseries buckets are derived from trend-level newest/published timestamps available in the 5B bundle (not from full per-record timestamp distributions).", "unmapped_signal_count_estimate=7 (non-silver themes or entities not confidently attributable to the silver market)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }