Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T17:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Escalating Middle East / Qatar LNG geopolitics (incl. Ras Laffan) raises LNG supply disruption risk, pressuring natural gas futures over next 24h. 62% up accelerating 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-002 Infrastructure/security risk signals tied to Russian gas infrastructure add secondary tightening risk-premium supporting natural gas over next 24h. 55% up stable 24h false 62
natural_gas B-NG-003 Very-recent single-source items suggesting geopolitical easing / supply assurances may partially cap immediate upside (reversal risk) in next 6–24h. 38% down fading 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260320T174500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T17:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish (Fragile)",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Escalating Middle East / Qatar LNG geopolitics (incl. Ras Laffan) increases perceived LNG supply disruption risk, creating upside pressure on natural gas futures over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Qatar/Ras Laffan LNG operational-geopolitical risk cluster",
 "LNG supply disruption narrative reinforcement (multi-source, recent mentions)",
 "Risk-premium repricing channel"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Broader infrastructure/security risk signals tied to Russian gas infrastructure add a secondary tightening risk-premium, supporting natural gas futures (weaker effect than LNG cluster) over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Infrastructure disruption risk anomalies referencing Gazprom",
 "European supply sensitivity / transmission risk channel"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Very-recent single-source items suggesting geopolitical easing / alternative supply assurances may partially cap the immediate upside move (reversal/mean-revert risk) in the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Late-cycle, low-diversity positive-geopolitics outliers",
 "Headline whipsaw / de-escalation risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "detail": "Directional bias is dominated by geopolitics/LNG supply-risk headlines rather than demand/storage fundamentals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "detail": "Several supporting narratives are older themes re-surfacing; conviction capped despite fresh mentions."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_fundamentals",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "detail": "No direct weather-demand/storage/pipeline-flow drivers present in admitted signals; increases model fragility."
 },
 {
 "flag": "reversal_watch_required",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "detail": "Small, late-cycle counter-sentiment outliers increase risk of abrupt fade if de-escalation headlines land."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh LNG disruption confirmation continues (additional high-authority mentions in next 6h) while contradiction remains contained, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence accelerates (multiple updates within 2h) or contradiction ratio rises, keep volatility_watch active."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing (de-escalation / supply-restoration) signal arrives within <=2h, activate reversal_watch and cap conviction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 20,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: natural_gas.",
 "Dominant admitted drivers are geopolitical/LNG supply-risk; no direct weather-demand, storage, or pipeline-flow fundamentals present in the provided 5B trends feed.",
 "One trend primarily mapped to crude oil (Brent) was not used as a primary driver for natural_gas directional scoring."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}