Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas futures skew upward as geopolitical/LNG disruption risk dominates headlines (supply-risk premium). 62 up accelerating 6h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h, upside persists but fades unless fresh disruption confirmation appears (headline-driven impulse decays). 57 up stable 24h false 68
natural_gas B-NG-003 Reversal risk exists: de-escalation/energy-security narratives could compress the risk premium and cap gains. 38 down fading 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures skew upward as geopolitical/LNG disruption risk dominates headlines (supply-risk premium).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "production_outages",
 "pipeline_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, upside persists but fades unless fresh disruption confirmation appears (headline-driven impulse decays).",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "storage"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Reversal risk exists: de-escalation/energy-security narratives could compress the risk premium and cap gains.",
 "probability_pct": 38,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-RECENCY_CONCENTRATION",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "label": "recency_flip_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional bias is supported by a small set of fresher signals while several supporting themes are >72h old (downweighted)."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-STALE_OVERHANG",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "label": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Older geopolitical narratives remain present but are suppressed; if they re-accelerate, volatility can rise."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "label": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Geopolitical/LNG disruption framing implies gap-risk and fast reversals on de-escalation headlines."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-NG-DATA_SPARSITY",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "label": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Current admitted drivers are dominated by geopolitics/LNG; limited explicit weather-demand/storage/flow fundamentals are present in the admitted set."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of LNG supply disruption/escalation within the next 6h AND no credible de-escalation counter-signal."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any sudden de-escalation or infrastructure-restoration headline within <=2h of monitoring window."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) signals shift from disruption/escalation to energy-security/normalisation AND contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count collapses (no meaningful updates for >12h) while stale suppression remains active."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 {
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 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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 "buckets": [
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 }
}