Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_regime
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Geopolitical risk premia and LNG supply-disruption narratives are adding net upward pressure to natural gas futures over the next 6–24h window. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 67 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | A non-trivial share of the last-24h tape reflects countervailing de-escalation/energy-security framing (or demand-sensitivity), which can compress the risk premium and push prices back towards flat/down. | 28 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 67 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Signal quality is headline-heavy (limited direct weather/storage/flow datapoints in the admitted set), increasing whipsaw/fragility even if direction remains modestly bullish. | 70 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 67 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260320T070000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Natural gas futures", "market_code": "natural_gas" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "natural_gas", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-NG-001", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Geopolitical risk premia and LNG supply-disruption narratives are adding net upward pressure to natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324h window.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "export_lng", "production_outages", "pipeline_flows", "geopolitical_supply_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-002" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-002", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "A non-trivial share of the last-24h tape reflects countervailing de-escalation/energy-security framing (or demand-sensitivity), which can compress the risk premium and push prices back towards flat/down.", "probability_pct": 28, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "policy_headlines", "sentiment_reversion", "demand_expectations" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-NG-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-NG-003", "market": "natural_gas", "claim": "Signal quality is headline-heavy (limited direct weather/storage/flow datapoints in the admitted set), increasing whipsaw/fragility even if direction remains modestly bullish.", "probability_pct": 70, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "data_sparsity", "headline_volatility" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-NG-001", "B-NG-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "headline_driven_regime", "severity": "medium", "note": "Dominant admitted inputs are geopolitical/LNG-risk narratives; limited direct weather/storage datapoints in this cycle." }, { "flag": "contradiction_moderate", "severity": "medium", "note": "Presence of countervailing 'energy security' / demand-framing items keeps contradiction ratio elevated." }, { "flag": "whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "note": "Intraday dip into bearish buckets observed in the last 24h timeseries despite overall bullish bias." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias only while bullish pressure remains > bearish pressure and directional_score_signed stays >= +20 across multiple consecutive buckets." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.50 while fresh_evidence_count remains low (headline churn / thin confirmation)." }, { "market": "natural_gas", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if two consecutive 1h buckets print directional_score_signed <= -20 (bearish dominance) or if a high-trust opposing signal arrives inside a 2h window." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "natural_gas" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.52, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.5, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.48, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.46, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.44, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -18, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 59, "net_sentiment_score": -18, "velocity_score": -36, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 52, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 49, "contradiction_ratio": 0.54, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.52, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.44, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 54, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -18, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target resolved explicitly as natural_gas from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "Directional inference is dominated by geopolitical/LNG supply-risk narratives; interpret conviction as moderate and fragility as elevated due to limited direct fundamentals (weather/storage/flows) in this admitted set.", "No prior state provided to 6B; state_change computed as if prior baseline was neutral_mixed." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }