Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_drivers_contradiction
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T20:41:32Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B1 Modest upward bias over 24h from EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines. 58 up accelerating 24h false 55
lithium B2 Battery recycling momentum increases perceived secondary supply, limiting upside over next 24h. 52 down accelerating 24h false 55
lithium B3 Supply-side development headlines pose downside risk to lithium futures within 24h if corroborated. 55 down stable 24h false 55
lithium B4 Near-term (6h) sentiment mixed-to-choppy as bullish EV impulses and bearish recycling/supply impulses coincide. 63 mixed stable 6h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "lithium_2026-03-20T20:41:32Z_6B", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T20:41:32Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures have a modest upward bias driven by fresh EV adoption/market-growth signals and battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "battery_supply_chain", "CATL battery manufacturing capacity expansion", "EV market growth / adoption updates" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B2", "B4" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Battery recycling momentum and related policy/technology narratives increase perceived secondary supply (or reduce marginal primary demand), limiting upside in lithium futures over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "battery_supply_chain", "inventory", "battery recycling / circular supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-side development headlines (resource development / extraction expansion) remain a meaningful downside risk factor for lithium futures within the next 24h if corroborated by additional high-authority sources.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "refining_capacity", "battery_supply_chain", "lithium extraction / resource development" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1" ] }, { "belief_id": "B4", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-choppy because bullish EV demand impulses and bearish recycling/supply-development impulses are arriving in the same session.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "battery_supply_chain", "inventory", "china_policy", "mixed driver stack (demand vs supply/recycling)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B4" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "mixed_drivers_contradiction", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Demand-positive EV/battery capacity signals are offset by recycling + supply-development narratives that can cap price upside." }, { "flag": "source_quality_dispersion", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Evidence mix indicates a high share of lower-authority sources across multiple themes; conviction capped despite fresh timestamps." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Battery chemistry / substitution and recycling narratives can flip forward-looking lithium sentiment quickly if incremental headlines skew bearish." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If net directional score remains >= +25 for 3 consecutive hours while contradiction_ratio stays < 0.25." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises to >= 0.30 or directional_score_signed swings by >= 15 points within 2 hours." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh bearish evidence (<=2h) pushes directional_score_signed below +10 (bullish thesis weakening) or below -20 (reversal)." }, { "action": "stay_flat", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops near zero for several hours and directional_score_signed mean-reverts into [-10, +10]." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 15, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 13, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 9, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 23, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 8, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 7, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 6, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 21, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 21, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -12, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": -12, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -11, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -8, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": -8, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -3, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": -3, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 23, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 22, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 21, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 30, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk assessed from mixed driver stack (demand vs recycling/supply development).", "Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming unknown_prior ~= neutral baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }