Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: mixed_drivers_contradiction
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T20:41:32Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B1 | Modest upward bias over 24h from EV adoption and battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B2 | Battery recycling momentum increases perceived secondary supply, limiting upside over next 24h. | 52 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B3 | Supply-side development headlines pose downside risk to lithium futures within 24h if corroborated. | 55 | down | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B4 | Near-term (6h) sentiment mixed-to-choppy as bullish EV impulses and bearish recycling/supply impulses coincide. | 63 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "lithium_2026-03-20T20:41:32Z_6B", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T20:41:32Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures have a modest upward bias driven by fresh EV adoption/market-growth signals and battery manufacturing capacity expansion headlines.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "battery_supply_chain", "CATL battery manufacturing capacity expansion", "EV market growth / adoption updates" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B2", "B4" ] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Battery recycling momentum and related policy/technology narratives increase perceived secondary supply (or reduce marginal primary demand), limiting upside in lithium futures over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "battery_supply_chain", "inventory", "battery recycling / circular supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-side development headlines (resource development / extraction expansion) remain a meaningful downside risk factor for lithium futures within the next 24h if corroborated by additional high-authority sources.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "refining_capacity", "battery_supply_chain", "lithium extraction / resource development" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1" ] }, { "belief_id": "B4", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-choppy because bullish EV demand impulses and bearish recycling/supply-development impulses are arriving in the same session.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "battery_supply_chain", "inventory", "china_policy", "mixed driver stack (demand vs supply/recycling)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B4" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "mixed_drivers_contradiction", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Demand-positive EV/battery capacity signals are offset by recycling + supply-development narratives that can cap price upside." }, { "flag": "source_quality_dispersion", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Evidence mix indicates a high share of lower-authority sources across multiple themes; conviction capped despite fresh timestamps." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Battery chemistry / substitution and recycling narratives can flip forward-looking lithium sentiment quickly if incremental headlines skew bearish." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action": "watch_long_bias", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If net directional score remains >= +25 for 3 consecutive hours while contradiction_ratio stays < 0.25." }, { "action": "volatility_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises to >= 0.30 or directional_score_signed swings by >= 15 points within 2 hours." }, { "action": "reversal_watch", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh bearish evidence (<=2h) pushes directional_score_signed below +10 (bullish thesis weakening) or below -20 (reversal)." }, { "action": "stay_flat", "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops near zero for several hours and directional_score_signed mean-reverts into [-10, +10]." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, 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"stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -3, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": -3, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 23, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 22, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 21, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 30, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk assessed from mixed driver stack (demand vs recycling/supply development).", "Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming unknown_prior ~= neutral baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }