Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_driver_contradiction
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20 12:06 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B1 Near-term lithium demand narrative remains supported by EV adoption + charging buildout + battery build plans, creating upward price pressure over the next 24h if sustained. 58 up accelerating 24h false 74
lithium B2 Supply-side expansion (extraction projects, capacity expansion, recycling scale-up) increases forward supply expectations, dampening lithium futures over the next 24h. 54 down stable 24h false 74
lithium B3 Policy/regulatory signalflow is supportive but fragmented across jurisdictions; this raises whipsaw risk and can cap directional follow-through in the next 6h. 62 mixed accelerating 6h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260320T120638Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T12:06:38Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium demand narrative remains supported by EV adoption + charging buildout + battery build plans, creating upward price pressure over the next 24h if sustained.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply-side expansion (extraction projects, capacity expansion, recycling scale-up) increases forward supply expectations, dampening lithium futures over the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "battery_supply_chain",
 "inventory",
 "refining_capacity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Policy/regulatory signalflow is supportive but fragmented across jurisdictions; this raises whipsaw risk and can cap directional follow-through in the next 6h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "ev_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_driver_contradiction",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Demand-positive EV/battery build signals vs supply-positive extraction/recycling/capacity expansion imply non-trivial internal contradiction for lithium price direction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_authority_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of supporting items are low-authority / single-source VIP outliers; conviction is capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Late-surge policy/technology narratives can flip quickly against supply expansion narratives, raising reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several narratives have multi-week spans; older context is treated as background rather than primary directional evidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh demand-side confirmations persist in the next 6h without an offsetting fresh supply shock, maintain watch_long_bias label."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) credible supply-addition headline or demand miss appears, escalate to reversal_watch label (medium reversal risk becomes high)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio remains elevated (>0.55) with thin incremental evidence, keep volatility_watch label."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If evidence concentration rises (more single-source VIP-style updates) and authoritative corroboration stays absent, consider hard_de_risk_watch label."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:06:38Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:36:38Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:36:38Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:06:38Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:06:38Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:36:38Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:36:38Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:06:38Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 26,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 34,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed vs neutral baseline.",
 "Directional inference is driver-based (demand vs supply expectations), not price-based.",
 "VIP outliers and risk anomalies are treated as low-weight modifiers due to single-source concentration."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}