Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: mixed_driver_contradiction
- generated_at: 2026-03-20 12:06 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B1 | Near-term lithium demand narrative remains supported by EV adoption + charging buildout + battery build plans, creating upward price pressure over the next 24h if sustained. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 74 |
| lithium | B2 | Supply-side expansion (extraction projects, capacity expansion, recycling scale-up) increases forward supply expectations, dampening lithium futures over the next 24h. | 54 | down | stable | 24h | false | 74 |
| lithium | B3 | Policy/regulatory signalflow is supportive but fragmented across jurisdictions; this raises whipsaw risk and can cap directional follow-through in the next 6h. | 62 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260320T120638Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T12:06:38Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium demand narrative remains supported by EV adoption + charging buildout + battery build plans, creating upward price pressure over the next 24h if sustained.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B2",
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side expansion (extraction projects, capacity expansion, recycling scale-up) increases forward supply expectations, dampening lithium futures over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"battery_supply_chain",
"inventory",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Policy/regulatory signalflow is supportive but fragmented across jurisdictions; this raises whipsaw risk and can cap directional follow-through in the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"ev_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B3"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_driver_contradiction",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Demand-positive EV/battery build signals vs supply-positive extraction/recycling/capacity expansion imply non-trivial internal contradiction for lithium price direction."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of supporting items are low-authority / single-source VIP outliers; conviction is capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Late-surge policy/technology narratives can flip quickly against supply expansion narratives, raising reversal risk."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several narratives have multi-week spans; older context is treated as background rather than primary directional evidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh demand-side confirmations persist in the next 6h without an offsetting fresh supply shock, maintain watch_long_bias label."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) credible supply-addition headline or demand miss appears, escalate to reversal_watch label (medium reversal risk becomes high)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio remains elevated (>0.55) with thin incremental evidence, keep volatility_watch label."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If evidence concentration rises (more single-source VIP-style updates) and authoritative corroboration stays absent, consider hard_de_risk_watch label."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:36:38Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:06:38Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:06:38Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:36:38Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:36:38Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:06:38Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:06:38Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:36:38Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:36:38Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:06:38Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 26,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 34,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed vs neutral baseline.",
"Directional inference is driver-based (demand vs supply expectations), not price-based.",
"VIP outliers and risk anomalies are treated as low-weight modifiers due to single-source concentration."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}