Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-001 (narrative_whipsaw)
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T02:12:03Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-24H-001 | Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment tilts upward on fresh EV/battery capacity and policy support signals, but with meaningful supply-side and substitution/recycling offsets. | 57 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 71 |
| lithium | B-LI-6H-002 | Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-up with elevated whipsaw risk (fresh bullish demand headlines vs. mixed/offsetting supply and chemistry signals). | 53 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 71 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap_20260320T021203Z_lithium_6B", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T02:12:03Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 71, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment tilts upward on fresh EV/battery capacity and policy support signals, but with meaningful supply-side and substitution/recycling offsets.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / OEM demand narrative (BYD, Tesla-linked ecosystem)", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion (CATL and peers)", "Policy/regulatory support signals (US DOE / EU-related policy narratives)", "Market commentary / monitoring signals (Benchmark-style coverage)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Recycling/secondary supply expansion themes (battery recycling tech)", "Primary supply expansion / extraction project themes (lithium extraction/resource development)", "Chemistry diversification / substitution themes (some advanced chemistries, incl. sodium-ion adjacency)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-6H-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment is mixed-to-up with elevated whipsaw risk (fresh bullish demand headlines vs. mixed/offsetting supply and chemistry signals).", "probability_pct": 53, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Near-term headline clustering in the last 1\u20132h of the feed window", "Demand-side reinforcement from EV/battery manufacturing narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Fresh mixed signals around recycling and chemistry shifts" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-24H-001", "B-LI-6H-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "details": "Fresh bullish demand/capacity signals are partially offset by recycling/chemistry narratives; contradiction is not dominant but is present." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "type": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "details": "Supply expansion / extraction-project themes exist but are less fresh than the latest demand/policy cluster; stale-suppression applied to avoid over-weighting older supply narratives." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LI-003", "market": "lithium", "type": "authority_mix_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several trend bundles show high low-authority share and/or singleton VIP items; treat signal as directionally indicative but fragile." }, { "flag_id": "RF-LI-004", "market": "lithium", "type": "data_model_limit", "severity": "low", "details": "No explicit per-record physics (5A) provided; inference relies on trend metadata (heat/confidence/recency proxies) and conservative mapping of demand vs supply direction." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias if net directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio remains < 0.35 for the next 2\u20133 hourly buckets." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if 1h velocity magnitude exceeds 30 points again (headline-driven whipsaw)." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh bearish supply/price signal arrives within <=2h with high authority and pushes contradiction_ratio above ~0.45." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Stay flat if directional score falls back into (-20, +20) while fragility remains >= 70 (mixed regime without edge)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 11.5, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 23, "acceleration_score": 23, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -23, "acceleration_score": -46, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 23, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": -9.2, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 4.6, "net_sentiment_score": -9.2, "velocity_score": -9.2, "acceleration_score": -9.2, "contradiction_ratio": 1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 92, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 9.2, "acceleration_score": 18.4, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -9.2, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, 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"stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 22.6, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 5, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 76.8, "bullish_pressure_score": 38.4, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 76.8, "velocity_score": 76.8, "acceleration_score": 76.8, "contradiction_ratio": 0, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:12:03Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:12:03Z", "directional_score_signed": 44.5, "bullish_pressure_score": 63.2, "bearish_pressure_score": 24.3, "net_sentiment_score": 44.5, "velocity_score": -32.3, "acceleration_score": -109.1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.278, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 76.8, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -9.2, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 32.3, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior directional state not provided; state_change set to new_bullish under unknown_prior assumption.", "Timeseries bucket attribution uses per-signal 'newest_timestamp' proxies (event-in-bucket model), not full per-record event streams.", "Some signals are mapped as mixed (bullish demand vs bearish supply/substitution) despite positive narrative sentiment labels, to reflect commodity price-direction mechanics." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }