Snapshot

  • subject_area: Corn futures
  • target_market_code: corn
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 1
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  • completion_state: ready_for_delivery

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
corn corn_belief_001_input_cost_shock Rising nitrogen fertilizer prices (and supply disruption risk) modestly increases upside risk for corn via higher production costs/acreage uncertainty, but near-term direction remains unclear without confirming weather/crop/export signals. 55 mixed stable 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_corn_20260320T000000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Corn futures",
 "market_code": "corn"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "corn",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "corn"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "corn_belief_001_input_cost_shock",
 "market": "corn",
 "claim": "Rising nitrogen fertilizer prices (and supply disruption risk) modestly increases upside risk for corn via higher production costs/acreage uncertainty, but near-term direction remains unclear without confirming weather/crop/export signals.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nitrogen fertilizer supply disruption risk",
 "input-cost inflation pressure into spring fieldwork window"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "no fresh corn-specific weather/crop-conditions/export-flow signals provided in this run",
 "single-source evidence only (high model uncertainty)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "corn",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "corn_belief_001_input_cost_shock"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "high",
 "markets": [
 "corn"
 ],
 "details": "workflow5B trend physics/trends not provided; only a single ingested news item present, so conviction is capped and fragility elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_market_driver_leakage_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "corn"
 ],
 "details": "Evidence is fertilizer/nitrogen-supply related (broad ag input driver) rather than a direct corn balance-sheet or weather shock."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "markets": [
 "corn"
 ],
 "details": "With thin evidence, any fresh weather/export headline could flip the state quickly (medium reversal risk)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "corn",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral posture until at least 2+ fresh corn-specific signals (weather/crop conditions/export flows/ethanol demand) corroborate a direction."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "corn",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalation/relief in fertiliser supply constraints or new planting/acreage headlines increases gap-risk."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "corn",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing driver arrives within ~2 hours of a new directional push (e.g., favourable weather or weak export demand), reassess immediately due to fragility."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "corn"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 8,
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 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 0,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "workflow5B_output not provided; no precomputed trend_physics/trend_state_memory available for 6B synthesis.",
 "Used ingested_data.raw_news_feed(1 item) as a weak, indirect corn driver (fertiliser/nitrogen supply disruption); capped conviction accordingly.",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior-state memory in this run."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}