Snapshot
- subject_area: Corn futures
- target_market_code: corn
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 1
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-20 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
- completion_state: ready_for_delivery
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| corn |
corn_belief_001_input_cost_shock |
Rising nitrogen fertilizer prices (and supply disruption risk) modestly increases upside risk for corn via higher production costs/acreage uncertainty, but near-term direction remains unclear without confirming weather/crop/export signals. |
55 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_corn_20260320T000000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Corn futures",
"market_code": "corn"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "corn",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"corn"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "corn_belief_001_input_cost_shock",
"market": "corn",
"claim": "Rising nitrogen fertilizer prices (and supply disruption risk) modestly increases upside risk for corn via higher production costs/acreage uncertainty, but near-term direction remains unclear without confirming weather/crop/export signals.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nitrogen fertilizer supply disruption risk",
"input-cost inflation pressure into spring fieldwork window"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"no fresh corn-specific weather/crop-conditions/export-flow signals provided in this run",
"single-source evidence only (high model uncertainty)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "corn",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"corn_belief_001_input_cost_shock"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "high",
"markets": [
"corn"
],
"details": "workflow5B trend physics/trends not provided; only a single ingested news item present, so conviction is capped and fragility elevated."
},
{
"flag": "cross_market_driver_leakage_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"corn"
],
"details": "Evidence is fertilizer/nitrogen-supply related (broad ag input driver) rather than a direct corn balance-sheet or weather shock."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"corn"
],
"details": "With thin evidence, any fresh weather/export headline could flip the state quickly (medium reversal risk)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "corn",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral posture until at least 2+ fresh corn-specific signals (weather/crop conditions/export flows/ethanol demand) corroborate a direction."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "corn",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalation/relief in fertiliser supply constraints or new planting/acreage headlines increases gap-risk."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "corn",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing driver arrives within ~2 hours of a new directional push (e.g., favourable weather or weak export demand), reassess immediately due to fragility."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"corn"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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{
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{
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},
{
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"acceleration_score": 8,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 0,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"workflow5B_output not provided; no precomputed trend_physics/trend_state_memory available for 6B synthesis.",
"Used ingested_data.raw_news_feed(1 item) as a weak, indirect corn driver (fertiliser/nitrogen supply disruption); capped conviction accordingly.",
"State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior-state memory in this run."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}