Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: theme_dominant_signal (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T21:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-01 Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as electrification/energy-transition demand narratives remain the dominant fresh driver set in the feed. 60 up accelerating 24h false 55
copper B-copper-02 Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is modestly supportive (grind higher/range-to-up), but relies on narrative reinforcement rather than a single decisive catalyst. 55 up stable 6h false 55
copper B-copper-03 Downside headline risk remains non-trivial (policy/trade/supply jurisdiction noise): a negative surprise could quickly flatten or reverse the current bullish tilt. 35 down fading 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260320T210000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures (HG)", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-01", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as electrification/energy-transition demand narratives remain the dominant fresh driver set in the feed.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "china_policy", "T-033", "T-034", "T-002", "T-001" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-03" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-02", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term (6h) copper sentiment is modestly supportive (grind higher/range-to-up), but relies on narrative reinforcement rather than a single decisive catalyst.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "inventory", "T-004", "T-009", "T-011" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-03" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-03", "market": "copper", "claim": "Downside headline risk remains non-trivial (policy/trade/supply jurisdiction noise): a negative surprise could quickly flatten or reverse the current bullish tilt.", "probability_pct": 35, "direction": "down", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "usd_strength", "china_policy", "mine_supply", "T-012", "T-016", "T-039" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-01", "B-copper-02" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-01", "B-copper-02" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "theme_dominant_signal", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Direction is supported mainly by broad electrification/energy-transition narratives; fewer explicit near-term inventory/USD drivers are present in the admitted feed." }, { "flag": "low_authority_tail_in_feed", "severity": "low", "detail": "Multiple VIP outliers are single-source/echo-risk; they were downweighted and should not be treated as standalone confirmation." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Trade-policy/strategic-minerals items can produce fast sentiment flips even without prior contradiction records." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "detail": "A minority of supporting context is >72h old (e.g., Chile/policy-related items) and could decay if not refreshed." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Bullish pressure remains >= +20 directional score and fresh evidence continues to cluster in recent buckets without a contradiction spike." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Any sudden rise in contradiction ratio (e.g., >=0.20) or appearance of a fresh opposing policy/macro signal inside the last 2h." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls back inside (-20, +20) while fresh evidence count rises (mixed messages) indicating a chop/neutralisation regime." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If conviction drops below 45 or fragility rises above 70 due to late-breaking opposing evidence." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 17, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 5, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Single-market scope enforced: copper.", "No explicit contradiction records provided by 5B; reversal detection remains inactive.", "VIP outliers and single-source items were treated as low-weight context only (echo-risk noted in inputs).", "State_change set to new_bullish due to unavailable prior state memory in this payload." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }