Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-CU-STALE-OVERHANG
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T02:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-CU-001 Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as fresh reinforcement of energy-transition / electrification themes continues to dominate the newsflow linked to copper demand. 60 up stable 24h false 68
copper B-CU-002 Supply-chain and strategic-minerals policy framing keeps a modest risk premium in copper, limiting downside over the next 6–24 hours even if demand headlines are slow-moving. 57 up fading 6h false 68
copper B-CU-003 Despite a bullish skew, the signal set is dominated by background/persistent narratives (slow velocity, many single-source VIP outliers), increasing the chance of choppy/range trading rather than clean continuation. 55 mixed stable 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_copper_20260320T020000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures (HG)", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-CU-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term copper futures bias remains upward as fresh reinforcement of energy-transition / electrification themes continues to dominate the newsflow linked to copper demand.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "T-031 renewable energy deployment", "T-032 electric vehicle adoption", "T-033 electric grid modernisation" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-CU-002", "market": "copper", "claim": "Supply-chain and strategic-minerals policy framing keeps a modest risk premium in copper, limiting downside over the next 6\u201324 hours even if demand headlines are slow-moving.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "T-013 U.S. trade policies and strategic mineral supply", "T-001 BHP trade policies", "T-019 disruption and supply crisis", "VIP-001 labour dispute (stale)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-CU-003", "market": "copper", "claim": "Despite a bullish skew, the signal set is dominated by background/persistent narratives (slow velocity, many single-source VIP outliers), increasing the chance of choppy/range trading rather than clean continuation.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Multiple trends marked dormant/slow velocity", "VIP lane echo-risk (single-source) concentration" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-CU-001", "B-CU-002", "B-CU-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-CU-STALE-OVERHANG", "market": "copper", "type": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "details": "Most supportive drivers are persistent/slow-velocity themes; conviction capped and momentum marked weakening." }, { "flag_id": "RF-CU-ECHO-RISK", "market": "copper", "type": "data_quality_echo_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "VIP lane contains multiple single-source outliers with echo-risk indicators; increases fragility." }, { "flag_id": "RF-CU-REVERSAL-SENSITIVITY", "market": "copper", "type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "With limited explicit bearish evidence in the admitted set, an unobserved USD-strength / macro-risk-off impulse could flip the near-term tape quickly." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while directional_state=bullish AND thesis_kill_switch=false; reassess if contradiction_ratio rises materially or a fresh bearish macro/USD impulse appears." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch while momentum_state=weakening AND fragility_score_0_100>=65 (rangebound chop risk)." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if a high-authority opposing signal arrives within <=2h (late-breaking invalidation sentinel conditions)." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "stay_flat if directional_score_signed falls back into [-20,+20] or if stale_suppression persists without any fresh confirmation for >24h." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 18, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 31, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit per-trend v2 physics fields provided (used timestamps + qualitative velocity hints + echo-risk indicators).", "Some evidence bundles show fresh timestamps near 2026-03-20; treated as reinforcement rather than a clean new catalyst due to 'dormant/slow' temporal profiles." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }