Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-copper-stale-context-overhang (stale_context_overhang, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Copper futures retain an upward bias into the next 24h as energy-transition/EV/grid-modernisation narratives dominate marginal demand expectations. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
57 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Policy/trade/strategic-minerals positioning continues to skew perceived supply-chain risk upward, modestly supporting copper pricing over the next 6\u201324h window. |
57 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
57 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
Idiosyncratic supply-disruption headlines exist in the background, but are unevenly corroborated; upside impact is conditional on fresh confirmation. |
52 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-03-20T12:00:00Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures retain an upward bias into the next 24h as energy-transition/EV/grid-modernisation narratives dominate marginal demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Policy/trade/strategic-minerals positioning continues to skew perceived supply-chain risk upward, modestly supporting copper pricing over the next 6\u201324h window.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"china_policy",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Idiosyncratic supply-disruption headlines exist in the background, but are unevenly corroborated; upside impact is conditional on fresh confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-stale-context-overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "stale_context_overhang",
"detail": "A meaningful share of supportive drivers are long-horizon thematic narratives with intermittent refresh; directional conviction is capped accordingly."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-authority-mix",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
"detail": "Evidence bundles show a material low-authority share in several clusters; treat momentum as more fragile than conviction alone implies."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-contradiction-sparsity",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"label": "counter_signal_sparsity",
"detail": "Few explicit opposing (bearish) signals were admitted in the current feed; reversal risk is driven more by absence of balance than by direct contradiction."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-policy-whipsaw",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"detail": "Trade/strategic-minerals policy headlines can flip rapidly and create short-lived sentiment shocks even without fundamental confirmation."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority updates within the next 6h reinforce industrial demand / electrification build-out and no fresh negative macro-demand signal appears."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority opposing signal arrives (e.g., demand-downshift or broad USD-strength shock) within <=2h and contradiction rises materially versus prior buckets."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy / strategic-minerals announcements cluster in a short window (headline burst), increasing intraday headline volatility."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops to near-zero across multiple hours while contradiction rises (signal becomes narrative-only)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 37,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 6,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from evidence quality + narrative whipsaw susceptibility rather than direct opposing signals.",
"Trend payload lacks v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields; recency/momentum approximated from timestamps, temporal_profile heat, and evidence_recency_proxy."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}