Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-copper-stale-context-overhang (stale_context_overhang, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures retain an upward bias into the next 24h as energy-transition/EV/grid-modernisation narratives dominate marginal demand expectations. 62 up accelerating 24h false 57
copper B-copper-002 Policy/trade/strategic-minerals positioning continues to skew perceived supply-chain risk upward, modestly supporting copper pricing over the next 6\u201324h window. 57 up stable 6h false 57
copper B-copper-003 Idiosyncratic supply-disruption headlines exist in the background, but are unevenly corroborated; upside impact is conditional on fresh confirmation. 52 mixed fading 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-03-20T12:00:00Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures retain an upward bias into the next 24h as energy-transition/EV/grid-modernisation narratives dominate marginal demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Policy/trade/strategic-minerals positioning continues to skew perceived supply-chain risk upward, modestly supporting copper pricing over the next 6\u201324h window.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "china_policy",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Idiosyncratic supply-disruption headlines exist in the background, but are unevenly corroborated; upside impact is conditional on fresh confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-stale-context-overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "stale_context_overhang",
 "detail": "A meaningful share of supportive drivers are long-horizon thematic narratives with intermittent refresh; directional conviction is capped accordingly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-authority-mix",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier",
 "detail": "Evidence bundles show a material low-authority share in several clusters; treat momentum as more fragile than conviction alone implies."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-contradiction-sparsity",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "label": "counter_signal_sparsity",
 "detail": "Few explicit opposing (bearish) signals were admitted in the current feed; reversal risk is driven more by absence of balance than by direct contradiction."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-policy-whipsaw",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "detail": "Trade/strategic-minerals policy headlines can flip rapidly and create short-lived sentiment shocks even without fundamental confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority updates within the next 6h reinforce industrial demand / electrification build-out and no fresh negative macro-demand signal appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-authority opposing signal arrives (e.g., demand-downshift or broad USD-strength shock) within <=2h and contradiction rises materially versus prior buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy / strategic-minerals announcements cluster in a short window (headline burst), increasing intraday headline volatility."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count drops to near-zero across multiple hours while contradiction rises (signal becomes narrative-only)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 37,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 6,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk derived from evidence quality + narrative whipsaw susceptibility rather than direct opposing signals.",
 "Trend payload lacks v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields; recency/momentum approximated from timestamps, temporal_profile heat, and evidence_recency_proxy."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}