Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T20:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h Near-term coffee futures downside pressure dominates as improved Brazil/Vietnam crop outlooks shift the balance toward surplus expectations (supply loosening). 64 down accelerating 24h false 55
coffee coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h Middle East conflict-driven shipping disruptions raise near-term logistics/insurance uncertainty, increasing two-way volatility but (currently) not enough to overturn the surplus-led bearish bias. 57 mixed stable 6h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260320T200000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures downside pressure dominates as improved Brazil/Vietnam crop outlooks shift the balance toward surplus expectations (supply loosening).",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "origin_supply: improved crop forecasts (Brazil/Vietnam)",
 "crop_conditions: recovery vs prior weather-hit period",
 "demand: high prior prices + delayed pass-through may weigh consumption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Middle East conflict-driven shipping disruptions raise near-term logistics/insurance uncertainty, increasing two-way volatility but (currently) not enough to overturn the surplus-led bearish bias.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: higher costs / route adjustments",
 "shipping_freight: potential delays and risk-premium behaviour"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bearish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bearish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h",
 "coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "No workflow_5B trends/physics provided; inference is based on a small number of same-hour ingested items."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_shipping_disruption",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Conflict-related route changes/costs can generate whipsaw volatility even if core supply thesis remains bearish."
 },
 {
 "flag": "currency_brl_usd_missing",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "BRL/USD driver arena present in flight plan but no direct currency evidence included in inputs."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh evidence reinforces surplus narrative (crop upgrades / export flow normalization) without offsetting weather shock."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If shipping insurance/cost headlines escalate or key chokepoints disrupt container availability, raising intraday swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-trust weather/crop-damage update appears within a 2\u20136h window that contradicts the surplus thesis."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory signals rise and net directional score returns inside the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 65,
 "net_sentiment_score": -45,
 "velocity_score": -45,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -45,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 45,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 0,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "workflow_5B_output not provided; used ingested_data summaries as thin evidence for directional synthesis.",
 "Directional impulse concentrated in the final hour bucket; earlier buckets are structurally present but evidence-sparse (low conviction, high fragility).",
 "State-change set to new_bearish with unknown prior-state baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}