Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T20:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h | Near-term coffee futures downside pressure dominates as improved Brazil/Vietnam crop outlooks shift the balance toward surplus expectations (supply loosening). | 64 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| coffee | coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h | Middle East conflict-driven shipping disruptions raise near-term logistics/insurance uncertainty, increasing two-way volatility but (currently) not enough to overturn the surplus-led bearish bias. | 57 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260320T200000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures downside pressure dominates as improved Brazil/Vietnam crop outlooks shift the balance toward surplus expectations (supply loosening).",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"origin_supply: improved crop forecasts (Brazil/Vietnam)",
"crop_conditions: recovery vs prior weather-hit period",
"demand: high prior prices + delayed pass-through may weigh consumption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Middle East conflict-driven shipping disruptions raise near-term logistics/insurance uncertainty, increasing two-way volatility but (currently) not enough to overturn the surplus-led bearish bias.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: higher costs / route adjustments",
"shipping_freight: potential delays and risk-premium behaviour"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"coffee_b1_surplus_downside_24h",
"coffee_b2_geopolitical_logistics_volatility_6h"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "No workflow_5B trends/physics provided; inference is based on a small number of same-hour ingested items."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_shipping_disruption",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Conflict-related route changes/costs can generate whipsaw volatility even if core supply thesis remains bearish."
},
{
"flag": "currency_brl_usd_missing",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "BRL/USD driver arena present in flight plan but no direct currency evidence included in inputs."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh evidence reinforces surplus narrative (crop upgrades / export flow normalization) without offsetting weather shock."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If shipping insurance/cost headlines escalate or key chokepoints disrupt container availability, raising intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh, high-trust weather/crop-damage update appears within a 2\u20136h window that contradicts the surplus thesis."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory signals rise and net directional score returns inside the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 65,
"net_sentiment_score": -45,
"velocity_score": -45,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -45,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 45,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 0,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"workflow_5B_output not provided; used ingested_data summaries as thin evidence for directional synthesis.",
"Directional impulse concentrated in the final hour bucket; earlier buckets are structurally present but evidence-sparse (low conviction, high fragility).",
"State-change set to new_bearish with unknown prior-state baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}