Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T04:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COFFEE-001 | Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption signals are net supportive of higher coffee futures (KC) via freight risk and potential supply-chain delays. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-002 | Bullish coffee sentiment is fragile: any fast de-escalation/normalisation in shipping headlines could flatten momentum or trigger a quick pullback. | 54 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 62 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-003 | Demand/retail expansion narratives (coffee shops / consumer preference stories) are present but look lower-transmission to immediate coffee futures direction versus freight/supply risks. | 65 | flat | fading | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260320T040500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T04:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption signals are net supportive of higher coffee futures (KC) via freight risk and potential supply-chain delays.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Trade-flow disruption / shipping-route risk (Maersk / Oman / Dubai / Iran-linked logistics headlines)",
"Operational surge risk around coffee pricing discourse (NCA/Brazil-linked pricing chatter)",
"Broad freight disruption narrative persistence (multiple trend clusters with recent mentions)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Bullish coffee sentiment is fragile: any fast de-escalation/normalisation in shipping headlines could flatten momentum or trigger a quick pullback.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"High headline sensitivity of the current thesis (logistics-driven)",
"Authority-mix skew to lower tiers across several logistics signals (higher noise risk)",
"Single-source VIP outliers present (echo-risk flags)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/retail expansion narratives (coffee shops / consumer preference stories) are present but look lower-transmission to immediate coffee futures direction versus freight/supply risks.",
"probability_pct": 65,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Older (multi-day) consumer/retail themes with 'dormant' temporal profiles",
"Lack of fresh, direct crop/weather catalysts in admitted set"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-002",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Limited direct coffee-specific weather/crop-condition signals in the admitted set; thesis relies heavily on logistics/freight proxies."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitical/shipping narratives can reverse quickly; current bullishness may be headline-sensitive."
},
{
"flag": "stale_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Some demand/retail expansion themes are older (>72h) and treated as background rather than primary directional drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh logistics disruption mentions persist over the next 6\u201324h without meaningful counter-signals."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction/mixed-signal density rises (more opposing logistics normalisation headlines or policy easing) while freight-risk themes remain active."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible, very recent (<=2h) opposing signal appears indicating disruption resolution (kill-switch candidate)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:05:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:05:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"No explicit contradictions array provided; contradiction_ratio inferred conservatively from mixed driver set and authority-mix/echo-risk flags.",
"Timeseries bucketing uses available signal timestamps (trend timestamps_found/published and evidence_recency_proxy newest timestamps where present) as recency anchors; sparse intra-trend event granularity is treated as higher fragility rather than overconfident precision.",
"Prior-state memory not provided; state_change 'new_bullish' assumes neutral baseline for comparison."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}