Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_geopolitical_premium (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T18:01:05Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-CO-001 | Near-term upside bias in Brent/crude complex as Middle East escalation risk and shipping-chokepoint uncertainty (Hormuz/adjacent routes) maintain a geopolitical risk premium. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-002 | Pullback / stall risk rises if policy signals credibly increase near-term supply (e.g., sanctions-easing / release of stored barrels) or if conflict de-escalation reduces the risk premium faster than physical disruption materialises. | 44 | down | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| crude_oil | B-CO-003 | Volatility remains elevated; headline-driven swings dominate as narrative intensity is high and cross-source authority mix is uneven, increasing whipsaw risk even with a bullish bias. | 68 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260320T180105Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T18:01:05Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term upside bias in Brent/crude complex as Middle East escalation risk and shipping-chokepoint uncertainty (Hormuz/adjacent routes) maintain a geopolitical risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"supply_disruption",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Pullback / stall risk rises if policy signals credibly increase near-term supply (e.g., sanctions-easing / release of stored barrels) or if conflict de-escalation reduces the risk premium faster than physical disruption materialises.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"policy_supply_offset",
"macro_demand",
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Volatility remains elevated; headline-driven swings dominate as narrative intensity is high and cross-source authority mix is uneven, increasing whipsaw risk even with a bullish bias.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping_freight",
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_geopolitical_premium",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Directional bias is strongly influenced by fast-moving geopolitical/shipping headlines; price action may gap on incremental updates."
},
{
"flag": "contradictory_policy_supply_offset",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Supply-offset narratives (e.g., sanctions-easing / releases) can partially neutralise disruption premium, raising reversal risk."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier_share",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Evidence bundle indicates meaningful low-authority share; treat marginal claims as needing confirmation."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_key_physical_metrics",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Inventory/outage specifics appear in limited, unevenly corroborated items versus broad geopolitical coverage."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of physical disruptions/shipping constraints within the next 6 hours AND contradiction ratio does not rise materially."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=2h) Tier-A headline indicating escalation/de-escalation, sanctions shifts, or confirmed outages affecting exports/refining."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Credible supply-add headline (e.g., verified sanctions relief / release decision) arrives and is echoed by multiple high-authority sources within a short window."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into [-20, +20] for multiple consecutive hourly buckets with rising contradiction ratio."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No prior market state provided; state_change computed vs assumed neutral baseline (unknown_prior -> neutral).",
"Contradictions array was empty upstream; contradiction_ratio here reflects mixed driver implications (risk-premium vs supply-offset policy narratives), not explicit contradiction objects."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}