Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: crude_oil
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_geopolitical_premium (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T18:01:05Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Near-term upside bias in Brent/crude complex as Middle East escalation risk and shipping-chokepoint uncertainty (Hormuz/adjacent routes) maintain a geopolitical risk premium. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-002 Pullback / stall risk rises if policy signals credibly increase near-term supply (e.g., sanctions-easing / release of stored barrels) or if conflict de-escalation reduces the risk premium faster than physical disruption materialises. 44 down stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-CO-003 Volatility remains elevated; headline-driven swings dominate as narrative intensity is high and cross-source authority mix is uneven, increasing whipsaw risk even with a bullish bias. 68 mixed accelerating 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260320T180105Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T18:01:05Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term upside bias in Brent/crude complex as Middle East escalation risk and shipping-chokepoint uncertainty (Hormuz/adjacent routes) maintain a geopolitical risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitics",
 "supply_disruption",
 "shipping_freight"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Pullback / stall risk rises if policy signals credibly increase near-term supply (e.g., sanctions-easing / release of stored barrels) or if conflict de-escalation reduces the risk premium faster than physical disruption materialises.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "policy_supply_offset",
 "macro_demand",
 "inventory"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Volatility remains elevated; headline-driven swings dominate as narrative intensity is high and cross-source authority mix is uneven, increasing whipsaw risk even with a bullish bias.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitics",
 "shipping_freight",
 "macro_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_geopolitical_premium",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Directional bias is strongly influenced by fast-moving geopolitical/shipping headlines; price action may gap on incremental updates."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradictory_policy_supply_offset",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Supply-offset narratives (e.g., sanctions-easing / releases) can partially neutralise disruption premium, raising reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low_tier_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Evidence bundle indicates meaningful low-authority share; treat marginal claims as needing confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_key_physical_metrics",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Inventory/outage specifics appear in limited, unevenly corroborated items versus broad geopolitical coverage."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of physical disruptions/shipping constraints within the next 6 hours AND contradiction ratio does not rise materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=2h) Tier-A headline indicating escalation/de-escalation, sanctions shifts, or confirmed outages affecting exports/refining."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Credible supply-add headline (e.g., verified sanctions relief / release decision) arrives and is echoed by multiple high-authority sources within a short window."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into [-20, +20] for multiple consecutive hourly buckets with rising contradiction ratio."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No prior market state provided; state_change computed vs assumed neutral baseline (unknown_prior -> neutral).",
 "Contradictions array was empty upstream; contradiction_ratio here reflects mixed driver implications (risk-premium vs supply-offset policy narratives), not explicit contradiction objects."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}