Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_response_overhang (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-20T09:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Near-term crude benchmarks (Brent-led) retain upside bias as physical supply-risk pricing stays elevated due to Gulf/Hormuz disruption risk and infrastructure strike headlines. 68 up stable 6h false 68
crude_oil B-crude-002 Upside is increasingly capped as coordinated emergency stock releases and multinational efforts to restore safe passage reduce the tail-risk premium. 58 mixed accelerating 24h false 68
crude_oil B-crude-003 Pullback risk rises over the next 24h if credible, verifiable progress emerges on reopening flows (or if reserve release ramps faster than disruption impact). 42 down accelerating 24h false 68

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260320T090000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term crude benchmarks (Brent-led) retain upside bias as physical supply-risk pricing stays elevated due to Gulf/Hormuz disruption risk and infrastructure strike headlines.", "probability_pct": 68, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Hormuz transit disruption / blockade risk", "Reported attacks on Gulf oil & gas infrastructure (incl. Qatar/Ras Laffan related disruption)", "Rerouting/insurance/freight premia and chokepoint risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Upside is increasingly capped as coordinated emergency stock releases and multinational efforts to restore safe passage reduce the tail-risk premium.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Coordinated emergency reserve release (policy supply buffer)", "Humanitarian corridor / safe-passage initiatives (reopening-path headlines)", "Demand-drag narrative via macro risk (recession odds chatter)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Pullback risk rises over the next 24h if credible, verifiable progress emerges on reopening flows (or if reserve release ramps faster than disruption impact).", "probability_pct": 42, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Shipping corridor / convoy success or de-escalation headlines", "Accelerated emergency stock draw logistics", "Positioning/volatility mean-reversion after spike" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "high", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_id": "RF-001", "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "policy_response_overhang", "level": "high", "detail": "Emergency stock releases and coordinated market-stabilisation actions can compress the risk premium quickly, increasing downside/reversal sensitivity." }, { "risk_id": "RF-002", "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "shipping_reopen_headline_whipsaw", "level": "high", "detail": "Safe-passage / corridor initiatives create binary headline risk (reopening vs renewed disruption), elevating intraday reversal probability." }, { "risk_id": "RF-003", "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "data_sparsity_in_inventory_lane", "level": "medium", "detail": "Inventory/stock-build signals present but appear thin/single-source in this batch; treat as directional cap rather than primary driver." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Bullish pressure persists without credible confirmation of reopened Hormuz flows or materially larger-than-expected reserve releases." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any new verified attack/closure headline or, conversely, confirmed convoy/corridor success; expect rapid repricing." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Fresh, high-authority signals indicate restored passage/flows OR coordinated reserve releases accelerate materially vs prior cadence." }, { "action_label": "stay_flat", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence remains mixed with high contradiction and no single driver dominates over the next cycle." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "crude_oil" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 80, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 5, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.", "No explicit prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback.", "Contradiction list empty in provided input; reversal risk elevated primarily from opposing policy/corridor headlines rather than measured contradiction spikes." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }