Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: policy_response_overhang (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-20T09:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Near-term crude benchmarks (Brent-led) retain upside bias as physical supply-risk pricing stays elevated due to Gulf/Hormuz disruption risk and infrastructure strike headlines. | 68 | up | stable | 6h | false | 68 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Upside is increasingly capped as coordinated emergency stock releases and multinational efforts to restore safe passage reduce the tail-risk premium. | 58 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 68 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Pullback risk rises over the next 24h if credible, verifiable progress emerges on reopening flows (or if reserve release ramps faster than disruption impact). | 42 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 68 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260320T090000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term crude benchmarks (Brent-led) retain upside bias as physical supply-risk pricing stays elevated due to Gulf/Hormuz disruption risk and infrastructure strike headlines.", "probability_pct": 68, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Hormuz transit disruption / blockade risk", "Reported attacks on Gulf oil & gas infrastructure (incl. Qatar/Ras Laffan related disruption)", "Rerouting/insurance/freight premia and chokepoint risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Upside is increasingly capped as coordinated emergency stock releases and multinational efforts to restore safe passage reduce the tail-risk premium.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Coordinated emergency reserve release (policy supply buffer)", "Humanitarian corridor / safe-passage initiatives (reopening-path headlines)", "Demand-drag narrative via macro risk (recession odds chatter)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Pullback risk rises over the next 24h if credible, verifiable progress emerges on reopening flows (or if reserve release ramps faster than disruption impact).", "probability_pct": 42, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Shipping corridor / convoy success or de-escalation headlines", "Accelerated emergency stock draw logistics", "Positioning/volatility mean-reversion after spike" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-crude-001" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "high", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_id": "RF-001", "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "policy_response_overhang", "level": "high", "detail": "Emergency stock releases and coordinated market-stabilisation actions can compress the risk premium quickly, increasing downside/reversal sensitivity." }, { "risk_id": "RF-002", "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "shipping_reopen_headline_whipsaw", "level": "high", "detail": "Safe-passage / corridor initiatives create binary headline risk (reopening vs renewed disruption), elevating intraday reversal probability." }, { "risk_id": "RF-003", "market": "crude_oil", "flag": "data_sparsity_in_inventory_lane", "level": "medium", "detail": "Inventory/stock-build signals present but appear thin/single-source in this batch; treat as directional cap rather than primary driver." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Bullish pressure persists without credible confirmation of reopened Hormuz flows or materially larger-than-expected reserve releases." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Any new verified attack/closure headline or, conversely, confirmed convoy/corridor success; expect rapid repricing." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Fresh, high-authority signals indicate restored passage/flows OR coordinated reserve releases accelerate materially vs prior cadence." }, { "action_label": "stay_flat", "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence remains mixed with high contradiction and no single driver dominates over the next cycle." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "crude_oil" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.3, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.29, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.27, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 74, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 83, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 80, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 79, "bearish_pressure_score": 21, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 51, "bullish_pressure_score": 76, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 51, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 5, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.", "No explicit prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change set to new_bullish under unknown_prior fallback.", "Contradiction list empty in provided input; reversal risk elevated primarily from opposing policy/corridor headlines rather than measured contradiction spikes." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }