Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures (U3O8)
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T17:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment is biased upward as nuclear policy/SMR deployment narratives remain supportive and supply-chain/geopolitical risk adds a risk-premium layer. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 61 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Near-term (6h) upside follow-through is possible as the most recent admitted items are clustered in the last ~5h, lifting recency-weighted pressure. | 57 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 61 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Supply-risk framing around major producers (e.g., Kazakhstan-linked supply chain narratives) supports a persistent bullish bias unless fresh counter-evidence arrives. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
| uranium | B-UR-004 | Despite bullish skew, conviction is capped because many drivers are policy/strategic (slow-burn) and the source mix includes a meaningful low-authority share, increasing narrative whipsaw risk. | 64 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260319T171000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T17:10:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures (U3O8)", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 24h, uranium futures sentiment is biased upward as nuclear policy/SMR deployment narratives remain supportive and supply-chain/geopolitical risk adds a risk-premium layer.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear", "reactor_demand", "geopolitical_supply_risk", "supply_contracting" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term (6h) upside follow-through is possible as the most recent admitted items are clustered in the last ~5h, lifting recency-weighted pressure.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear", "reactor_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-UR-004" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-003", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Supply-risk framing around major producers (e.g., Kazakhstan-linked supply chain narratives) supports a persistent bullish bias unless fresh counter-evidence arrives.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_supply_risk", "supply_contracting" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-004", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Despite bullish skew, conviction is capped because many drivers are policy/strategic (slow-burn) and the source mix includes a meaningful low-authority share, increasing narrative whipsaw risk.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-001", "B-UR-002", "B-UR-003", "B-UR-004" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "uranium", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several supportive themes are slow-burn (policy/strategic). Fresh items exist, but persistence-heavy background can overstate immediate tradability." }, { "market": "uranium", "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "details": "Headline-driven policy/technology narratives can flip quickly; monitor for abrupt counter-headlines." }, { "market": "uranium", "flag": "data_quality_mix", "severity": "medium", "details": "Authority mix shows notable low-tier share across multiple trends; maintain higher fragility vs price-confirmed regimes." }, { "market": "uranium", "flag": "data_sparsity_in_intraday_buckets", "severity": "low", "details": "Intraday clustering: a few hours carry most 'fresh' timestamps; earlier buckets are sparse and should be treated conservatively." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias if directional_score_signed stays >= +35 and contradiction_ratio remains <= 0.25 over the next 6h." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Elevate volatility monitoring if fragility_score rises >= 70 or if a high-authority opposing signal appears within a 2h window." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch activates if fresh bearish evidence arrives and contradiction_ratio rises materially versus prior cycle." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Defer directional stance if subsequent cycle shows net_sentiment_score near 0 with rising contradiction and falling fresh_evidence_count." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": 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1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 48, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly to uranium; single-market synthesis enforced.", "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in inputs; reversal-risk is driven by fragility/policy-headline sensitivity rather than detected opposing acceleration.", "Some VIP outliers were treated as weakly mappable to uranium (generic energy-transition items) and down-weighted; two were not admitted to avoid force-mapping." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }