Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_volatility_policy_regulatory
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T10:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Uranium price bias is upward as supply-chain/geopolitical supply risk and contracting/sourcing concerns remain salient while nuclear policy support persists. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 56 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Near-term (6h) sentiment remains constructive, but headline-driven volatility is elevated due to policy/regulatory flow concentration and mixed authority sources. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 56 |
| uranium | B-UR-003 | Even if direction remains bullish, the path is likely choppy (intraday swings) given a high share of low-diversity/singleton signals in the marginal update stream. | 66 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_6b_uranium_2026-03-19T10:30:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T10:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Uranium price bias is upward as supply-chain/geopolitical supply risk and contracting/sourcing concerns remain salient while nuclear policy support persists.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_supply_risk", "supply_contracting", "policy_nuclear" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term (6h) sentiment remains constructive, but headline-driven volatility is elevated due to policy/regulatory flow concentration and mixed authority sources.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear", "regulatory_signals", "geopolitical_supply_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-003", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Even if direction remains bullish, the path is likely choppy (intraday swings) given a high share of low-diversity/singleton signals in the marginal update stream.", "probability_pct": 66, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "policy_nuclear", "information_quality_dispersion" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-001", "B-UR-002", "B-UR-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "headline_volatility_policy_regulatory", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Recent signal flow is dominated by policy/regulatory narratives; these can reverse quickly and create whipsaw even without explicit contradictory signals." }, { "flag": "authority_dispersion_low_tier_overhang", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Admitted trend bundles show material low-authority share; marginal updates include multiple singleton sources (echo-risk)." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Timeseries shows sharp swings in net directional score around clustered updates (early-UTC hours), raising reversal/mean-reversion risk." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Several supporting narratives are slow-burn and older than 72h, though they are being intermittently refreshed." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If net directional score remains >= +40 for 2+ consecutive hourly buckets with contradiction_ratio <= 0.15, maintain long-bias watch." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above 0.20 or directional_score_signed drops by >= 25 within 1\u20132 buckets, treat as volatility/reversal watch." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing (bearish) signal arrives within <= 2h and directional_score_signed falls below +20, shift to hard de-risk watch." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -18, "acceleration_score": -31, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -14, "acceleration_score": -16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 31, "acceleration_score": 35, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": true, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 51, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 17, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -25, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -19, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 39, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 39, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": 28, "acceleration_score": 24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 31, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 13, "trends_admitted": 13, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Scope locked to single market: uranium (explicit target_market_code).", "No explicit contradictions provided in input; reversal risk is driven by volatility/authority dispersion rather than opposing directional evidence.", "State-change computed assuming neutral baseline due to missing prior state memory." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }