Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_silver_specific
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T19:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SI-001 | Over the next 24h, silver futures have a mild upside bias as risk-off / safe-haven framing remains supportive for precious metals, but macro-rate uncertainty caps conviction. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 78 |
| silver | B-SI-002 | Within 6–24h, any hawkish shift in rates/real-rates expectations can quickly pressure silver, increasing reversal/whipsaw risk. | 47 | down | accelerating | 6h | false | 78 |
| silver | B-SI-003 | Intraday volatility risk is elevated: mixed macro (rates) vs safe-haven narratives implies chop/range behaviour even if the net bias is slightly up. | 64 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260319T190000Z-silver", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SI-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures have a mild upside bias as risk-off / safe-haven framing remains supportive for precious metals, but macro-rate uncertainty caps conviction.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Safe-haven / geopolitical-risk attention in precious-metals complex (gold-led spillover to silver)", "Precious-metals flow narratives (ETF/investment allocation chatter)", "Industrial-demand framing (solar manufacturing themes) as background support" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-002" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-002", "market": "silver", "claim": "Within 6\u201324h, any hawkish shift in rates/real-rates expectations can quickly pressure silver, increasing reversal/whipsaw risk.", "probability_pct": 47, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Rate-expectations sensitivity (real rates / USD strength channel)", "Macro headline-driven positioning risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-SI-001" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SI-003", "market": "silver", "claim": "Intraday volatility risk is elevated: mixed macro (rates) vs safe-haven narratives implies chop/range behaviour even if the net bias is slightly up.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Mixed macro impulse (rates expectations vs risk-off framing)", "Sparse, partially single-source micro signals in the silver-specific lane" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SI-001", "B-SI-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity_silver_specific", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several silver-relevant items are broad-complex (gold/safe-haven) or single-source VIP outliers; limits directional confidence." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Key thematic supports include multi-week narratives with recent re-mentions; recency-weighted but still vulnerable to macro pivots." }, { "flag": "macro_rates_whipsaw_risk", "market": "silver", "severity": "medium", "details": "Rate-expectations headlines can quickly flip precious-metals sentiment, raising reversal risk even during bullish flow bursts." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Safe-haven / precious-metals flow signals persist while rate-expectations headlines remain non-hawkish in the next 6\u201324h." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Mixed macro/risk narratives continue with frequent rate-expectations updates, increasing intraday chop risk." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "A fresh, high-authority hawkish rates impulse (or USD/real-rate surge narrative) arrives and begins to dominate coverage within <=6h." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional scores revert toward neutral (|score| < 20) across multiple consecutive hourly buckets with rising contradiction." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 13, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.43, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.44, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 83, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 10, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 84, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 11, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.44, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 31, "fragility_score_0_100": 83, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 13, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.43, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 81, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 16, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 79, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.28, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -17, "contradiction_ratio": 0.31, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.32, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.46, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.47, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 83, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.46, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 83, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.44, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.42, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 8, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 30, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 9, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No per-trend v2 physics fields were provided to 6B; used recency proxies (timestamp_found/published/temporal_profile) and narrative cohesion heuristics.", "Prior market-state memory not provided; state_change treated as neutral->bullish transition for reporting." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }