Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: macro_tightening_impulse
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Over the next ~6 hours, silver futures sentiment skews downside as tighter/longer-rate expectations and USD strength dominate near-term precious-metals positioning. 62 down accelerating 6h false 58
silver B-SI-002 Over the next ~24 hours, downside bias persists but becomes more two-sided as safe-haven flows and mean-reversion risk compete with yields/USD pressure. 58 down stable 24h false 58
silver B-SI-003 A rebound attempt is plausible if safe-haven/geopolitical demand accelerates and/or USD momentum stalls; this creates meaningful reversal risk after sharp downside narrative. 42 mixed accelerating 24h false 58
silver B-SI-004 Industrial-demand (solar manufacturing/renewables) narratives remain supportive in the background but are secondary for the next 6–24 hours versus macro rates/USD shocks. 55 mixed fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260319T120000Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next ~6 hours, silver futures sentiment skews downside as tighter/longer-rate expectations and USD strength dominate near-term precious-metals positioning.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Rates/real-rates hawkishness and tighter financial-conditions narrative",
 "USD strength as a headwind for USD-priced metals",
 "Risk-off cross-currents not translating into sustained bid for silver (yet)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-003 (safe-haven/geopolitical bid can support bounce)",
 "B-SI-004 (industrial demand / solar narrative supports medium-term floor)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next ~24 hours, downside bias persists but becomes more two-sided as safe-haven flows and mean-reversion risk compete with yields/USD pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Macro policy expectations (Fed/ECB) remain the primary short-horizon driver",
 "Positioning sensitivity to real-rate changes",
 "Precious-metals complex risk sentiment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-003 (geopolitical escalation / haven bid)",
 "B-SI-004 (industrial demand narrative)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "A rebound attempt is plausible if safe-haven/geopolitical demand accelerates and/or USD momentum stalls; this creates meaningful reversal risk after sharp downside narrative.",
 "probability_pct": 42,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical risk premium (haven flows)",
 "Gold-led haven bid spillover to silver",
 "Short-covering/mean reversion after downside impulse"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001 (rates/USD dominate)",
 "B-SI-002 (tightening regime persistence)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-004",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial-demand (solar manufacturing/renewables) narratives remain supportive in the background but are secondary for the next 6\u201324 hours versus macro rates/USD shocks.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Industrial demand framing (solar/renewables capacity buildout)",
 "Longer-run market growth narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SI-001 (macro tightening dominates near-term tape)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bearish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bearish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_tightening_impulse",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Near-term silver sensitivity elevated to hawkish rate/real-rate expectations and USD strength."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_mixed_precious_metals_drivers",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Safe-haven/geopolitical support competes with yields/USD headwinds, raising reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "evidence_quality_mixture",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some supporting items are single-source/VIP or long-running themes; treated as background vs. short-horizon catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If USD strength + hawkish rates narrative persists and no sustained haven bid emerges."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If yields and geopolitics both remain active intraday drivers (mixed flow regime)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If safe-haven flow acceleration coincides with USD pullback / rate-expectations softening."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming signals remain contradictory and directional score returns to the neutral band (|score| < 20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": -18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -22,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 52,
 "net_sentiment_score": -24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 54,
 "net_sentiment_score": -28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 56,
 "net_sentiment_score": -32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 57,
 "net_sentiment_score": -34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 23,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 58,
 "net_sentiment_score": -36,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 59,
 "net_sentiment_score": -38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 62,
 "net_sentiment_score": -43,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 63,
 "net_sentiment_score": -45,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 62,
 "net_sentiment_score": -41,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -36,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 45,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=silver.",
 "Directional inference emphasises near-term macro (rates/USD) over longer-horizon industrial-demand narratives.",
 "No explicit prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change set as new_bearish with assumed neutral prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}