Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: macro_tightening_impulse
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Over the next ~6 hours, silver futures sentiment skews downside as tighter/longer-rate expectations and USD strength dominate near-term precious-metals positioning. |
62 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
Over the next ~24 hours, downside bias persists but becomes more two-sided as safe-haven flows and mean-reversion risk compete with yields/USD pressure. |
58 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SI-003 |
A rebound attempt is plausible if safe-haven/geopolitical demand accelerates and/or USD momentum stalls; this creates meaningful reversal risk after sharp downside narrative. |
42 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SI-004 |
Industrial-demand (solar manufacturing/renewables) narratives remain supportive in the background but are secondary for the next 6–24 hours versus macro rates/USD shocks. |
55 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260319T120000Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next ~6 hours, silver futures sentiment skews downside as tighter/longer-rate expectations and USD strength dominate near-term precious-metals positioning.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Rates/real-rates hawkishness and tighter financial-conditions narrative",
"USD strength as a headwind for USD-priced metals",
"Risk-off cross-currents not translating into sustained bid for silver (yet)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-003 (safe-haven/geopolitical bid can support bounce)",
"B-SI-004 (industrial demand / solar narrative supports medium-term floor)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next ~24 hours, downside bias persists but becomes more two-sided as safe-haven flows and mean-reversion risk compete with yields/USD pressure.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Macro policy expectations (Fed/ECB) remain the primary short-horizon driver",
"Positioning sensitivity to real-rate changes",
"Precious-metals complex risk sentiment"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-003 (geopolitical escalation / haven bid)",
"B-SI-004 (industrial demand narrative)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "A rebound attempt is plausible if safe-haven/geopolitical demand accelerates and/or USD momentum stalls; this creates meaningful reversal risk after sharp downside narrative.",
"probability_pct": 42,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical risk premium (haven flows)",
"Gold-led haven bid spillover to silver",
"Short-covering/mean reversion after downside impulse"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001 (rates/USD dominate)",
"B-SI-002 (tightening regime persistence)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-004",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial-demand (solar manufacturing/renewables) narratives remain supportive in the background but are secondary for the next 6\u201324 hours versus macro rates/USD shocks.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Industrial demand framing (solar/renewables capacity buildout)",
"Longer-run market growth narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001 (macro tightening dominates near-term tape)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_tightening_impulse",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Near-term silver sensitivity elevated to hawkish rate/real-rate expectations and USD strength."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_mixed_precious_metals_drivers",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Safe-haven/geopolitical support competes with yields/USD headwinds, raising reversal risk."
},
{
"flag": "evidence_quality_mixture",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some supporting items are single-source/VIP or long-running themes; treated as background vs. short-horizon catalysts."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If USD strength + hawkish rates narrative persists and no sustained haven bid emerges."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If yields and geopolitics both remain active intraday drivers (mixed flow regime)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If safe-haven flow acceleration coincides with USD pullback / rate-expectations softening."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming signals remain contradictory and directional score returns to the neutral band (|score| < 20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": -18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -22,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 54,
"net_sentiment_score": -28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -31,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 56,
"net_sentiment_score": -32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 57,
"net_sentiment_score": -34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 58,
"net_sentiment_score": -36,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 59,
"net_sentiment_score": -38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 62,
"net_sentiment_score": -43,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 63,
"net_sentiment_score": -45,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 62,
"net_sentiment_score": -41,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -36,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 45,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=silver.",
"Directional inference emphasises near-term macro (rates/USD) over longer-horizon industrial-demand narratives.",
"No explicit prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change set as new_bearish with assumed neutral prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}