Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_dependency
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-01 |
Safe-haven / precious-metals bid is supportive for silver over the next 6–24 hours, with macro risk headlines keeping dip-buying interest active. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SI-02 |
Silver-specific narrative signals (silver market growth framing; institutional/industry commentary) are mildly supportive, but are not yet decisive enough to override macro dependence. |
55 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SI-03 |
ETF/flow-related signals are supportive but fragile due to single-source concentration; treat as a secondary, not primary, driver for direction. |
53 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_silver_20260319T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Safe-haven / precious-metals bid is supportive for silver over the next 6\u201324 hours, with macro risk headlines keeping dip-buying interest active.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"macro/geopolitical risk tone (safe-haven demand proxy)",
"Fed-policy sensitivity as a secondary amplifier"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Potential USD strength / real-rate repricing (not yet expressed as a fresh opposing trend in provided inputs)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-02",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Silver-specific narrative signals (silver market growth framing; institutional/industry commentary) are mildly supportive, but are not yet decisive enough to override macro dependence.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand (via silver market growth narrative)",
"mine_supply / industry framing (weakly evidenced here)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If macro tightens (USD/real rates), this support may fade quickly"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-03",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "ETF/flow-related signals are supportive but fragile due to single-source concentration; treat as a secondary, not primary, driver for direction.",
"probability_pct": 53,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows (ETF allocation chatter)",
"risk of echo / low-domain-diversity signal"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Single-source VIP outlier concentration; limited corroboration"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-01",
"B-SI-02",
"B-SI-03"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-01",
"market": "silver",
"type": "macro_dependency",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is heavily conditioned on USD / real-rate / Fed-expectations channels; rapid repricing can flip silver quickly."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-02",
"market": "silver",
"type": "data_sparsity_in_physics",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory provided; momentum/acceleration inferred from proxies (velocity_hint, temporal_profile, evidence recency proxies)."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-03",
"market": "silver",
"type": "single_source_outlier",
"severity": "low",
"details": "ETF-flow VIP signal is single-source with high echo-risk; treated as secondary support only."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-04",
"market": "silver",
"type": "reversal_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Bullish bias is moderately fragile; any fresh opposing macro signal (<=2h) would raise reversal risk and could trigger kill-switch behavior."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive macro/flow signals persist through the next 6h bucket set and contradiction remains low (no opposing high-authority updates)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) USD/real-rate tightening signal appears or contradiction rises materially versus the last cycle, treat as potential invalidation of bullish bias."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If macro headline density remains elevated (policy/geopolitics), expect choppier intraday swings even if bias remains mildly bullish."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If subsequent inputs show mixed/offsetting macro signals and directional score falls back into the neutral band (|score| < 20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradictions provided; reversal risk estimated from macro sensitivity + fragility rather than measured contradiction spikes.",
"v2 physics fields (trend_physics, trend_state_memory) not present in input payload; used proxy features (temporal_profile recency heat, evidence recency proxy newest timestamps, velocity_hint).",
"State change computed with unknown prior state; 'new_bullish' applied as conservative classification rather than a confirmed flip from persisted memory."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}