Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_dependency
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-01 Safe-haven / precious-metals bid is supportive for silver over the next 6–24 hours, with macro risk headlines keeping dip-buying interest active. 58 up accelerating 24h false 58
silver B-SI-02 Silver-specific narrative signals (silver market growth framing; institutional/industry commentary) are mildly supportive, but are not yet decisive enough to override macro dependence. 55 up stable 24h false 58
silver B-SI-03 ETF/flow-related signals are supportive but fragile due to single-source concentration; treat as a secondary, not primary, driver for direction. 53 mixed fading 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_silver_20260319T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-01",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Safe-haven / precious-metals bid is supportive for silver over the next 6\u201324 hours, with macro risk headlines keeping dip-buying interest active.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "macro/geopolitical risk tone (safe-haven demand proxy)",
 "Fed-policy sensitivity as a secondary amplifier"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Potential USD strength / real-rate repricing (not yet expressed as a fresh opposing trend in provided inputs)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-02",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Silver-specific narrative signals (silver market growth framing; institutional/industry commentary) are mildly supportive, but are not yet decisive enough to override macro dependence.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand (via silver market growth narrative)",
 "mine_supply / industry framing (weakly evidenced here)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If macro tightens (USD/real rates), this support may fade quickly"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-03",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "ETF/flow-related signals are supportive but fragile due to single-source concentration; treat as a secondary, not primary, driver for direction.",
 "probability_pct": 53,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows (ETF allocation chatter)",
 "risk of echo / low-domain-diversity signal"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Single-source VIP outlier concentration; limited corroboration"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-01",
 "B-SI-02",
 "B-SI-03"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-01",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "macro_dependency",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional bias is heavily conditioned on USD / real-rate / Fed-expectations channels; rapid repricing can flip silver quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-02",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "data_sparsity_in_physics",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "No v2 trend_physics / trend_state_memory provided; momentum/acceleration inferred from proxies (velocity_hint, temporal_profile, evidence recency proxies)."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-03",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "single_source_outlier",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "ETF-flow VIP signal is single-source with high echo-risk; treated as secondary support only."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-SI-04",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "reversal_watch",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Bullish bias is moderately fragile; any fresh opposing macro signal (<=2h) would raise reversal risk and could trigger kill-switch behavior."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive macro/flow signals persist through the next 6h bucket set and contradiction remains low (no opposing high-authority updates)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) USD/real-rate tightening signal appears or contradiction rises materially versus the last cycle, treat as potential invalidation of bullish bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro headline density remains elevated (policy/geopolitics), expect choppier intraday swings even if bias remains mildly bullish."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If subsequent inputs show mixed/offsetting macro signals and directional score falls back into the neutral band (|score| < 20)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "No explicit contradictions provided; reversal risk estimated from macro sensitivity + fragility rather than measured contradiction spikes.",
 "v2 physics fields (trend_physics, trend_state_memory) not present in input payload; used proxy features (temporal_profile recency heat, evidence recency proxy newest timestamps, velocity_hint).",
 "State change computed with unknown prior state; 'new_bullish' applied as conservative classification rather than a confirmed flip from persisted memory."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}