Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_supply_risk_premium (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T22:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Over next ~6h, biased higher/'up but choppy' as LNG/geopolitical supply-risk headlines keep a risk-premium bid. |
60 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over ~24h, upside skew persists but volatility elevated; bullish thesis fragile, de-escalation can quickly unwind risk premium. |
57 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
62 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Short-term downside risk if demand/policy/regulatory signals dominate and the market treats disruption risk as non-binding (risk-premium compression). |
43 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_2026-03-19T22:05:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T22:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next ~6 hours, natural gas futures are biased higher or 'up but choppy' as LNG/geopolitical supply-risk headlines keep a risk-premium bid in the complex.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply disruption / energy-security headline risk (Qatar/Iran/Ras Laffan / wider ME)",
"Infrastructure disruption risk signal (Gazprom-related / network disruption framing)",
"Risk-off positioning dynamics from Tier-A source clusters (Reuters/Bloomberg-heavy trend set)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over ~24 hours, upside skew persists but volatility is elevated; any perceived de-escalation/continuity of flows can unwind the risk premium quickly (bullish thesis is fragile).",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent geopolitical escalation narratives across multiple clusters",
"Single-source 'tail' signals (VIP lane) add noise and can amplify whipsaw risk",
"Mixed policy/demand chatter (Europe/Asia) can intermittently cap rallies"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Short-term downside risk exists if demand/policy/regulatory signals dominate the tape and the market treats disruption risk as non-binding (risk-premium compression).",
"probability_pct": 43,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Policy/demand dynamics in Europe/Asia (VIP singleton) suggesting potential demand headwinds",
"Late-hour regulatory/price-noise signal (seed-level, low-confidence) raising uncertainty rather than directional clarity",
"Event-risk fatigue / de-escalation headlines (not yet present as explicit contradictions in this batch)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_supply_risk_premium",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Dominant admitted signals are disruption/energy-security related; supports upside risk premium but can reverse quickly on de-escalation."
},
{
"flag": "momentum_softening_last_6h",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Hourly sentiment-score peaked earlier and has rolled over into the latest buckets, increasing reversal/mean-reversion risk."
},
{
"flag": "vip_singleton_noise_tail",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several VIP-lane items are single-source; treat as volatility amplifiers rather than stable directional evidence."
},
{
"flag": "fundamental_data_absent_in_batch",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "This run is headline-driven (geopolitics/policy); no explicit storage/production/weather quant drivers were provided in the admitted evidence set."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh corroboration of LNG supply disruption / energy-security escalation within the next 6\u201312 hours without matching de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any rapid sequence of opposing geopolitics headlines (escalation then de-escalation) or confirmation/denial of operational disruption."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Directional-score continues to fall for 2\u20133 consecutive hourly buckets while bearish-pressure and contradiction ratio rise."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 22,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -27,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 14,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['natural_gas'].",
"Directional mapping interpretation used: disruption/energy-security risk => bullish price pressure; policy/demand headwinds => bearish pressure.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio reflects mixed-signal/authority-noise rather than formal contradiction records.",
"State_change set as 'new_bullish' due to absent prior-state memory in input (treated as neutral baseline)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}