Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001 (headline_whipsaw, high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19 18:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term NG futures retain an upside risk-premium as geopolitical headlines (Middle East/LNG supply risk) remain elevated. |
63 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
67 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24h, direction is more likely bullish-than-bearish but with elevated volatility and headline whipsaw risk. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
67 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Volatility is likely elevated versus baseline due to concentrated geopolitical-driven signal flow rather than fundamental balance indicators. |
70 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
67 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260319T181500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T18:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term NG futures retain an upside risk-premium as geopolitical headlines (Middle East/LNG supply risk) remain elevated.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Qatar/Iran geopolitical risk cluster (LNG supply risk premium)",
"Ras Laffan / North Dome energy-security narratives",
"Asia utility/LNG buyer sensitivity (JERA-related disruption risk framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of fresh, direct weather-demand/storage tightness evidence in admitted signal set",
"Potential de-escalation headline risk (fast reversal channel)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, direction is more likely bullish-than-bearish but with elevated volatility and headline whipsaw risk.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Persistent geopolitical risk narrative reinforcement across multiple high-authority sources",
"Supply-disruption framing (Russia/Gazprom and broader supply-shock narratives as background overhang)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any credible confirmation of supply continuity / de-escalation",
"Fundamental oversupply/storage comfort signals (not present in current inputs)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility is likely elevated versus baseline due to concentrated geopolitical-driven signal flow rather than fundamental balance indicators.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"High news velocity hints and spike/late-surge temporal shapes in key geopolitical trends",
"Mixed authority and some single-source VIP outliers increasing noise/fragility"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Broad cooling of headline flow / fewer fresh updates"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"risk_type": "headline_whipsaw",
"severity": "high",
"rationale": "Directional support is dominated by geopolitical risk-premium narratives that can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"risk_type": "data_sparsity_fundamentals",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Admitted evidence is heavy on geopolitics/supply-disruption framing with limited direct weather-demand/storage confirmation in the provided inputs."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"risk_type": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Older (multi-day) Russia/Gazprom/supply-shock narratives remain present as background context and can distort perceived persistence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh high-authority updates continue to reinforce LNG supply risk without credible de-escalation, upside bias persists."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fast-velocity geopolitical updates arrive (<=6h) with mixed tone, expect wider intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) counter-signal indicates de-escalation or confirmed supply continuity, bullish thesis may be rapidly capped/neutralised."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If signal flow cools materially and no new fundamentals appear, conviction may decay toward neutral."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_physics / per-record physics provided to 6B in this payload; timeseries and momentum proxies derived from timestamps_found/published, temporal_profile, velocity_hint, and evidence_recency_proxy fields.",
"Directional mapping for negative geopolitical/supply-disruption narratives interpreted as upside price risk-premium for natural gas (LNG-linked) rather than 'negative price direction'."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}