Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:40:16Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term natural gas futures are biased upward due to elevated geopolitical/LNG supply-disruption risk premia (Qatar/Iran/Israel-linked headlines). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24h, the upside bias persists but remains fragile because the signal is event-driven (headline reversals/de-escalation can rapidly unwind the risk premium). |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-03-19T12:40:16Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:40:16Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures are biased upward due to elevated geopolitical/LNG supply-disruption risk premia (Qatar/Iran/Israel-linked headlines).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"production_outages",
"geopolitical risk premium"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, the upside bias persists but remains fragile because the signal is event-driven (headline reversals/de-escalation can rapidly unwind the risk premium).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"pipeline_flows",
"geopolitical escalation risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any credible de-escalation/ceasefire/operational-normalisation headlines in the next 1\u20136 hours"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Directional support is dominated by geopolitical escalation / LNG security narratives; rapid de-escalation can flip the premium quickly."
},
{
"flag": "fundamental_driver_coverage_gap",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Current admitted signals are thin on weather-demand, storage, and domestic production balance; increases fragility of directional call."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_low_authority_share_present",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Evidence bundles indicate meaningful low-authority share and some single-source outliers; treat marginal incremental signals cautiously."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "VIP lane includes several single-source items; not used as sole basis for direction but can add noise/volatility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while fresh LNG/geopolitical escalation signals continue to print and no credible de-escalation arrives."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch: any rapid confirmation/denial of LNG disruption, shipping risk, or Gulf security incidents could widen intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch: if a high-authority, very recent de-escalation headline appears, the risk premium thesis can unwind quickly."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:16Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:40:16Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:40:16Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:40:16Z",
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:40:16Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:40:16Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:40:16Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:40:16Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:40:16Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:40:16Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:40:16Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:40:16Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:40:16Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:40:16Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:40:16Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
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"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -45,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
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"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:40:16Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:40:16Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 50,
"acceleration_score": 55,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 50,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change treated as first-observed in this run.",
"Directional inference is risk-premium-based (geopolitical/LNG security) rather than weather/storage balance due to limited fundamental-driver signals in admitted set."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}