Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: natural_gas
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:40:16Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term natural gas futures are biased upward due to elevated geopolitical/LNG supply-disruption risk premia (Qatar/Iran/Israel-linked headlines). 62 up accelerating 6h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h, the upside bias persists but remains fragile because the signal is event-driven (headline reversals/de-escalation can rapidly unwind the risk premium). 58 up stable 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-03-19T12:40:16Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:40:16Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures are biased upward due to elevated geopolitical/LNG supply-disruption risk premia (Qatar/Iran/Israel-linked headlines).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "production_outages",
 "geopolitical risk premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, the upside bias persists but remains fragile because the signal is event-driven (headline reversals/de-escalation can rapidly unwind the risk premium).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "geopolitical escalation risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Any credible de-escalation/ceasefire/operational-normalisation headlines in the next 1\u20136 hours"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Directional support is dominated by geopolitical escalation / LNG security narratives; rapid de-escalation can flip the premium quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "fundamental_driver_coverage_gap",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Current admitted signals are thin on weather-demand, storage, and domestic production balance; increases fragility of directional call."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_low_authority_share_present",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Evidence bundles indicate meaningful low-authority share and some single-source outliers; treat marginal incremental signals cautiously."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_outliers_present",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "VIP lane includes several single-source items; not used as sole basis for direction but can add noise/volatility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch only while fresh LNG/geopolitical escalation signals continue to print and no credible de-escalation arrives."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch: any rapid confirmation/denial of LNG disruption, shipping risk, or Gulf security incidents could widen intraday swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch: if a high-authority, very recent de-escalation headline appears, the risk premium thesis can unwind quickly."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:40:16Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:40:16Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 50,
 "acceleration_score": 55,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 50,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change treated as first-observed in this run.",
 "Directional inference is risk-premium-based (geopolitical/LNG security) rather than weather/storage balance due to limited fundamental-driver signals in admitted set."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}