Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_dominance (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T06:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Escalating geopolitical/security risk centred on Iran/Qatar increases perceived LNG supply/shipping disruption risk, supporting a near-term risk premium in natural gas futures. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 69 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Even if direction remains mildly higher, the next 6–24 hours are prone to fast reversals because the dominant driver is event/headline risk rather than persistent demand/supply fundamentals. | 62 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 69 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Absent fresh weather/storage-specific confirmation inside the provided signal set, bullish conviction is capped and should be treated as fragile. | 70 | flat | stable | 24h | false | 69 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-03-19T06:05:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T06:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Escalating geopolitical/security risk centred on Iran/Qatar increases perceived LNG supply/shipping disruption risk, supporting a near-term risk premium in natural gas futures.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Iran-related geopolitical escalation / security risk (fresh, high-heat trend cluster)",
"QatarEnergy/Qatar Petroleum security escalation narratives (fresh, high-heat)",
"Ras Laffan supply disruption narrative (older; treated as background)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of direct confirming fundamentals in this baton (weather, storage, US production/flows) increases model fragility"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Even if direction remains mildly higher, the next 6\u201324 hours are prone to fast reversals because the dominant driver is event/headline risk rather than persistent demand/supply fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Event-driven geopolitical catalyst dominance",
"Single-source/echo-risk pockets (VIP outliers; logistics items) raising whipsaw risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If escalation persists and is corroborated across multiple high-authority sources, reversal risk can fall while bullish conviction rises"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Absent fresh weather/storage-specific confirmation inside the provided signal set, bullish conviction is capped and should be treated as fragile.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Driver arenas requested (weather_demand, storage, pipeline_flows) not materially represented in admitted evidence",
"Evidence mix skewed toward geopolitical narratives and several low-authority/echo-risk singletons"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Any fresh, high-authority weather/storage/US supply-flow signals appearing in the next cycle"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_dominance",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is primarily supported by geopolitical/security risk narratives (Iran/Qatar/LNG) rather than direct gas fundamentals; raises whipsaw probability."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "data_sparsity_core_fundamentals_missing",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Limited explicit signal coverage for requested driver arenas (weather_demand, storage, pipeline_flows). Conviction capped; fragility elevated."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several supporting narratives are >72h old and are downweighted (background only)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "echo_risk_single_source_pockets",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Multiple VIP/risk singleton items present (single-domain concentration); treated as weak confirmers and volatility cues rather than core direction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional high-authority confirmation of LNG supply/shipping disruption risk OR continued acceleration in the same direction over the next 6 hours."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any material de-escalation headline, ceasefire/diplomatic breakthrough, or shipping-route risk repricing that could rapidly compress risk premium."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing signals within <=6 hours (e.g., confirmed supply restoration, improved LNG logistics, or strong bearish storage/weather surprises in later cycles)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 30,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Directional inference is driven mainly by LNG/geopolitical risk narratives (Iran/Qatar/Ras Laffan/logistics); limited direct coverage for weather/storage/pipeline flows in provided admitted set.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk set to medium due to event-driven catalyst profile rather than measured contradiction spike.",
"Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table passed); state_change emitted as new_bullish against unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}