Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19 21:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium futures narrative bias is upward as EV adoption/policy tailwinds remain the dominant fresh driver cluster. | 56 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Supply-side expansion and chemistry/substitution progress can cap upside and intermittently re-price downside risk over the next 24 hours. | 48 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Headline-driven policy risk can create short-lived whipsaws even if the broader EV-demand narrative remains constructive. | 60 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260319T210000Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures narrative bias is upward as EV adoption/policy tailwinds remain the dominant fresh driver cluster.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-003 (BYD: electric vehicle adoption)",
"T-019 (Honda: electric vehicle market and policy developments)",
"T-036 (European Commission: regulation)",
"T-005 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence: market)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side expansion and chemistry/substitution progress can cap upside and intermittently re-price downside risk over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-015 (Albemarle: lithium extraction)",
"T-042 (Samsung: lithium resource development)",
"T-007 (CATL: battery manufacturing capacity expansion)",
"T-002 (Chery: advancements in battery chemistries)",
"VIP-001 (Berlin Battery Lab: battery chemistries)",
"VIP-004 (Lithium Royalty Investments: advancements in battery chemistries)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Headline-driven policy risk can create short-lived whipsaws even if the broader EV-demand narrative remains constructive.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-004 (Donald Trump: regulatory)",
"T-036 (European Commission: regulation)"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "contradiction_spike_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Demand-positive EV/policy signals are met by supply/chemistry counterweights; contradiction elevated but not kill-switch level."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "policy_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Policy/regulatory headline flow can rapidly flip short-horizon sentiment despite broader EV-demand tailwinds."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "evidence_authority_mix",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Evidence bundles show meaningful Tier A presence but still skew to lower-tier sources, increasing fragility vs. direct fundamental datapoints (inventory/spot)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "substitution_narrative_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Battery chemistry progress signals exist but are partially singleton/low-diversity; monitor for corroboration before upgrading risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh EV-demand and policy-support signals continue to outnumber supply/chemistry headwinds over the next 6\u201324h buckets while contradiction ratio stays <= ~0.45."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (>= ~0.55) or policy-related negatives cluster within a 2\u20134h window."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If supply expansion/extraction narratives become the dominant fresh driver cluster (multiple high-trust confirmations inside <=24h) and net sentiment drops below +20."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If net sentiment remains between -10 and +10 for >=6 consecutive hourly buckets (rangebound signal regime)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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},
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]
},
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 33,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 7,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: lithium.",
"No explicit contradiction records provided; contradiction ratios reflect mixed driver clusters (demand vs supply/chemistry/policy).",
"No prior state memory supplied; state_change left as 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}