Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-24H-001 | Lithium futures have a mild upside bias over the next 24h as EV/battery demand narratives remain net-supportive and continue to receive fresh mentions. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
| lithium | B-LI-6H-002 | In the next 6h, the signal is prone to chop: bullish demand framing is present, but relies on mostly persistent narratives with uneven recency and low-authority dilution. | 55 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260319T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Lithium futures have a mild upside bias over the next 24h as EV/battery demand narratives remain net-supportive and continue to receive fresh mentions.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand (Tesla/BYD/legacy OEM adoption narrative persists with fresh mentions)", "battery_supply_chain capacity build-outs keeping demand expectations firm", "policy/regulatory signals supportive of electrification (background persistent)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "supply expansion / resource development narratives (Chile, Albemarle, Samsung SDI-linked resource themes) that can cap price upside", "evidence quality skew (high low-authority share) increasing fragility" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-6H-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "In the next 6h, the signal is prone to chop: bullish demand framing is present, but relies on mostly persistent narratives with uneven recency and low-authority dilution.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "recency burst in mentions earlier in the session (01:00\u201306:00Z cluster)", "limited high-authority incremental catalysts inside the last 6h window" ], "contradicted_by": [ "a new high-trust negative lithium-specific catalyst within <=2h would invalidate this (late-breaking sentinel watch)" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-24H-001", "B-LI-6H-002" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Most drivers are persistent multi-day narratives; fresh mentions exist but are not clearly tied to a single decisive lithium price catalyst." }, { "flag": "low_authority_source_mix", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Evidence bundles show a high share of lower-tier sources; conviction is capped and fragility elevated." }, { "flag": "reversal_watch", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Supply-expansion/resource-development narratives can flip the sign quickly if paired with a fresh demand disappointment headline." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "detail": "Very recent (<=2h) lithium-specific opposing signals are not present in the provided feed; sentinel remains armed but not triggered." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch while directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and no high-trust opposing catalyst appears inside <=2h." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If fragility remains > 60 with weakening momentum, expect higher whipsaw risk; wait for corroboration density to rise." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If fresh bearish supply/price-cut narrative prints and contradiction ratio rises materially vs prior cycle, treat as reversal-risk escalation." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 69, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 5, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 30, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 6, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope locked to single market: lithium (explicit in flight_plan).", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk inferred from supply-vs-demand thematic tension + weakening recent slope.", "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no opposing <=2h signal timestamps available in provided feed).", "VIP outliers mostly single-source; treated as low-weight context only." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }