Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-001-mixed-push-pull
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001-24h Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment-skew is modestly upward as EV adoption + battery buildout + policy/regulatory momentum signals outweigh near-term supply-expansion narratives. 58 up accelerating 24h false 58
lithium B-lithium-002-6h Over the next 6h, direction is still biased upward but is more fragile; a small amount of supply-side expansion news can neutralise the move. 55 up accelerating 6h false 58
lithium B-lithium-003-mixed Lithium sentiment is mixed: demand-growth and policy signals are strong, but supply-addition and chemistry-substitution themes keep reversal risk elevated. 63 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260319T060000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001-24h",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment-skew is modestly upward as EV adoption + battery buildout + policy/regulatory momentum signals outweigh near-term supply-expansion narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand: EV adoption / electrification growth narratives (T-001, T-043, T-016)",
 "battery_supply_chain: battery manufacturing capacity expansion (T-011)",
 "policy: regulatory/policy flow supportive of electrification (T-019, T-033)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "supply_addition: lithium extraction / resource development expansion headlines (T-008, T-040, VIP-005, VIP-006, VIP-009)",
 "demand_substitution_risk: battery chemistry advancement narratives potentially reducing lithium intensity (T-012)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002-6h",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, direction is still biased upward but is more fragile; a small amount of supply-side expansion news can neutralise the move.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "fresh_cluster: multiple lithium-relevant trend updates with very recent timestamps in the feed (T-001, T-019, T-043)",
 "demand_tone: continued EV demand framing (T-016, T-010)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "supply_expansion_pulse: Albemarle extraction / related resource development (T-008, T-040)",
 "thin_negative_tail: isolated negative regulatory/industry tone (RA-001)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-003-mixed",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium sentiment is mixed: demand-growth and policy signals are strong, but supply-addition and chemistry-substitution themes keep reversal risk elevated.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "cross-domain mix: demand + policy + supply signals all active in the same 24h window"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001-24h",
 "B-lithium-002-6h",
 "B-lithium-003-mixed"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-001-mixed-push-pull",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Demand-growth/policy tailwinds and supply-expansion/substitution narratives are simultaneously active; increases reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-002-authority-mix",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Signal set contains many lower-tier / single-source items (VIP lane and some trend evidence mixes), limiting conviction despite recency."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-003-substitution-risk",
 "market": "lithium",
 "type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Battery-chemistry advancement narratives can act as a structural counter-signal to lithium-demand framing."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias if fresh EV-demand/policy-linked trend updates persist without a matching increase in fresh supply-addition headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing supply-addition or demand-weakening signal appears and contradiction rises."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect choppiness when supply-expansion stories cluster into the same short window as EV-demand headlines (push-pull regime)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Adopt flat/neutral posture label if bullish pressure decays and net directional score falls inside [-20,+20] with rising contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -6,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -25,
 "velocity_score": -25,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 60,
 "acceleration_score": 85,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -35,
 "acceleration_score": -95,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 60,
 "acceleration_score": 60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 45,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market run constrained to target_market_code=lithium.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio inferred from co-existing bullish demand/policy vs bearish supply/substitution pressures.",
 "Many evidence bundles show high low-authority share and several VIP single-source items; conviction capped accordingly."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}