Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-001-mixed-push-pull
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T06:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-lithium-001-24h |
Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment-skew is modestly upward as EV adoption + battery buildout + policy/regulatory momentum signals outweigh near-term supply-expansion narratives. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
B-lithium-002-6h |
Over the next 6h, direction is still biased upward but is more fragile; a small amount of supply-side expansion news can neutralise the move. |
55 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| lithium |
B-lithium-003-mixed |
Lithium sentiment is mixed: demand-growth and policy signals are strong, but supply-addition and chemistry-substitution themes keep reversal risk elevated. |
63 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260319T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-001-24h",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment-skew is modestly upward as EV adoption + battery buildout + policy/regulatory momentum signals outweigh near-term supply-expansion narratives.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand: EV adoption / electrification growth narratives (T-001, T-043, T-016)",
"battery_supply_chain: battery manufacturing capacity expansion (T-011)",
"policy: regulatory/policy flow supportive of electrification (T-019, T-033)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"supply_addition: lithium extraction / resource development expansion headlines (T-008, T-040, VIP-005, VIP-006, VIP-009)",
"demand_substitution_risk: battery chemistry advancement narratives potentially reducing lithium intensity (T-012)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-002-6h",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, direction is still biased upward but is more fragile; a small amount of supply-side expansion news can neutralise the move.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"fresh_cluster: multiple lithium-relevant trend updates with very recent timestamps in the feed (T-001, T-019, T-043)",
"demand_tone: continued EV demand framing (T-016, T-010)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"supply_expansion_pulse: Albemarle extraction / related resource development (T-008, T-040)",
"thin_negative_tail: isolated negative regulatory/industry tone (RA-001)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-003-mixed",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium sentiment is mixed: demand-growth and policy signals are strong, but supply-addition and chemistry-substitution themes keep reversal risk elevated.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"cross-domain mix: demand + policy + supply signals all active in the same 24h window"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-001-24h",
"B-lithium-002-6h",
"B-lithium-003-mixed"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-001-mixed-push-pull",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Demand-growth/policy tailwinds and supply-expansion/substitution narratives are simultaneously active; increases reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-002-authority-mix",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Signal set contains many lower-tier / single-source items (VIP lane and some trend evidence mixes), limiting conviction despite recency."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-003-substitution-risk",
"market": "lithium",
"type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Battery-chemistry advancement narratives can act as a structural counter-signal to lithium-demand framing."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias if fresh EV-demand/policy-linked trend updates persist without a matching increase in fresh supply-addition headlines."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh (<=2h) high-authority opposing supply-addition or demand-weakening signal appears and contradiction rises."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Expect choppiness when supply-expansion stories cluster into the same short window as EV-demand headlines (push-pull regime)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Adopt flat/neutral posture label if bullish pressure decays and net directional score falls inside [-20,+20] with rising contradiction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 6,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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},
{
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},
{
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
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"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 60,
"acceleration_score": 85,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -95,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 60,
"acceleration_score": 60,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -25,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 45,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market run constrained to target_market_code=lithium.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio inferred from co-existing bullish demand/policy vs bearish supply/substitution pressures.",
"Many evidence bundles show high low-authority share and several VIP single-source items; conviction capped accordingly."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}