Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium (battery supply chain)
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-ev-demand-24h EV adoption / electrification narrative remains net-supportive of lithium demand over the next 24h, biasing sentiment toward upward price pressure. 62 up accelerating 24h false 66
lithium B-lithium-battery-capex-24h Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (CATL/peers) is reinforcing forward procurement expectations, contributing to a positive lithium demand tone. 58 up stable 24h false 66
lithium B-lithium-supply-expansion-cap-24h Ongoing lithium extraction/project expansion narratives are a near-term cap on bullish lithium price sentiment, increasing odds of upside stalls. 55 down stable 24h false 66
lithium B-lithium-policy-vol-6h Policy/regulatory headline-flow linked to transport electrification and trade/industrial policy is adding volatility risk to lithium sentiment in the next 6h. 60 mixed stable 6h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260319T120000Z-lithium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium (battery supply chain)", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-ev-demand-24h", "market": "lithium", "claim": "EV adoption / electrification narrative remains net-supportive of lithium demand over the next 24h, biasing sentiment toward upward price pressure (even if not immediately reflected in spot).", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "china_policy", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-lithium-supply-expansion-cap-24h" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-battery-capex-24h", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (CATL/peers) is reinforcing forward procurement expectations, contributing to a positive lithium demand tone over 6\u201324h.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "battery_supply_chain", "refining_capacity" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-lithium-supply-expansion-cap-24h" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-supply-expansion-cap-24h", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Ongoing lithium extraction/project expansion narratives (multiple producers/projects) are a near-term cap on bullish lithium price sentiment, increasing odds of upside stalls.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "battery_supply_chain", "refining_capacity" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-lithium-ev-demand-24h", "B-lithium-battery-capex-24h" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-policy-vol-6h", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Policy/regulatory headline-flow linked to transport electrification and trade/industrial policy is adding volatility risk to lithium sentiment in the next 6h.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "china_policy", "inventory" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-ev-demand-24h", "B-lithium-battery-capex-24h", "B-lithium-policy-vol-6h" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several supporting narratives have multi-day spans; directional call is capped despite fresh mentions." }, { "flag": "data_quality_low_authority_mix", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Signal set includes substantial low-authority share; increases fragility and whipsaw risk." }, { "flag": "supply_demand_offset_risk", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Demand-positive EV/battery narratives are partially offset by supply expansion narratives (risk of upside stall)." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "detail": "Policy/regulatory sub-signals can flip quickly, elevating short-horizon volatility." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Net sentiment remains >= +20 with fresh evidence count rising and contradiction ratio stable/declining." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Policy/regulatory drivers accelerate or contradiction ratio rises while directional score stalls." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score drops below +10 within 6h while bearish (supply) pressure increases." }, { "market": "lithium", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains between -19 and +19 for 6 consecutive 1h buckets (rangebound / no edge)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -6, "bullish_pressure_score": 19, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": -6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 18, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -4, "bullish_pressure_score": 21, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": -4, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 19, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -2, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": -2, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 77, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 22, "fragility_score_0_100": 76, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 26, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 73, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 32, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 14, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 6, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Scope resolved explicitly to lithium; single-market synthesis applied.", "Directional bias reflects demand-side EV/battery narratives, tempered by supply expansion overhang and mixed authority quality.", "No <=2h high-trust opposing signal detected in provided inputs; kill-switch not triggered." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }