Snapshot

  • subject_area: Corn futures
  • target_market_code: corn
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_5B_missing
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19 08:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
corn corn_b1_upside_supply_risk_6h Near-term corn futures skew mildly upward as fertiliser supply disruption headlines increase perceived production/availability risk. 56 up stable 6h false 64
corn corn_b2_supportive_demand_policy_24h Over the next 24h, corn futures maintain a mild upward bias as biofuel/ethanol policy advocacy adds demand-support narrative to supply-risk headlines. 58 up fading 24h false 64

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_corn_2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Corn futures", "market_code": "corn" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "corn", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "corn" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "corn_b1_upside_supply_risk_6h", "market": "corn", "claim": "Near-term corn futures skew mildly upward as fertiliser supply disruption headlines increase perceived production/availability risk.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "fertiliser_supply_disruption", "input_cost_shock_risk", "geopolitical_shipping_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "corn_b2_supportive_demand_policy_24h", "market": "corn", "claim": "Over the next 24h, corn futures maintain a mild upward bias as biofuel/ethanol policy advocacy adds demand-support narrative to supply-risk headlines.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "ethanol_policy_support", "renewable_fuel_standard_expectations", "fertiliser_cost_pass_through_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "corn", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "corn_b1_upside_supply_risk_6h", "corn_b2_supportive_demand_policy_24h" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity_5B_missing", "severity": "high", "note": "workflow5b_output (trend physics/state memory) not provided; interpretation is degraded and relies on sparse headline-level cues." }, { "flag": "event_driven_headline_risk", "severity": "medium", "note": "Geopolitical/fertiliser-shipping headlines can whipsaw sentiment quickly." }, { "flag": "reversal_risk_mixed_mapping", "severity": "medium", "note": "Input-cost inflation can be price-bullish (supply risk) or demand-bearish (margin squeeze), raising two-sided interpretation risk." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "corn", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Remain flat while signal remains headline-driven and physics inputs are unavailable (low structure / higher fragility)." }, { "market": "corn", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to long-bias watch if additional fresh, high-trust evidence confirms fertiliser disruption translating into reduced planting/application or tighter stocks." }, { "market": "corn", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if credible counter-headlines emerge (rapid supply-chain normalisation, policy offsets, or improving crop condition signals) within the next 2\u20136 hours." }, { "market": "corn", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain volatility watch while conflict/supply-chain headlines remain active." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "corn" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "corn" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 22, "acceleration_score": 22, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -18, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 12, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 14, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -14, "acceleration_score": -28, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 12, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 10, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 6, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 20, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 22, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 20, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 0, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "workflow5b_output missing; no trend_physics / trend_state_memory available. Output is conservative and fragility is elevated.", "Timeseries buckets are populated using only the provided ingested headline timestamps as sparse 'fresh evidence' markers (no quantified market microstructure inputs).", "State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown prior state (no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory supplied)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }