Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19 19:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-CU-24H-DEMAND_TAILWIND | 24h upward bias: demand narratives (electrification/EVs/renewables) dominate vs supply growth. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| copper | B-CU-6H-POLICY_NOISE | 6h mixed: trade-policy/legal headline risk raises near-term two-way flows despite constructive medium-term demand. | 54 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 55 |
| copper | B-CU-24H-TAIL_DOWNSIDE_USD_POLICY | 24h downside tail risk if trade-policy/legal shocks amplify USD strength and risk-off flows. | 36 | down | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_copper_20260319T190000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-CU-24H-DEMAND_TAILWIND", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 24h, copper futures have an upward bias as electrification/renewables/EV-linked demand narratives remain dominant versus supply growth signals.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "china_policy", "usd_strength" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-CU-6H-POLICY_NOISE", "B-CU-24H-TAIL_DOWNSIDE_USD_POLICY" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-CU-6H-POLICY_NOISE", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 6h, copper futures are likely to trade mixed as trade-policy/legal headline risk raises near-term two-way flows despite constructive medium-term demand framing.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "usd_strength", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-CU-24H-DEMAND_TAILWIND" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-CU-24H-TAIL_DOWNSIDE_USD_POLICY", "market": "copper", "claim": "Downside tail risk exists over 24h if fresh trade-policy/legal developments amplify USD strength and risk-off positioning, temporarily overwhelming the demand narrative.", "probability_pct": 36, "direction": "down", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "usd_strength", "trade_policy_uncertainty" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-CU-24H-DEMAND_TAILWIND" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-CU-24H-DEMAND_TAILWIND", "B-CU-6H-POLICY_NOISE", "B-CU-24H-TAIL_DOWNSIDE_USD_POLICY" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "copper", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A meaningful share of supportive narrative is structural/slow-burn (energy transition themes), so intraday confirmation matters for maintaining momentum." }, { "market": "copper", "flag": "policy_trade_uncertainty", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Trade-policy/legal headline sensitivity increases short-horizon two-way risk (USD/risk sentiment transmission)." }, { "market": "copper", "flag": "data_sparsity_intraday", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Limited explicitly time-stamped copper-specific microstructure/inventory signals in the last 24h; conviction capped." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If directional score remains >= +20 with conviction >= 60 and contradiction does not rise further." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing policy/legal evidence arrives (<=2h) and contradiction ratio rises above ~0.28, reassess directional state." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fragility persists >= 55 while directional score falls toward the neutral threshold (+20)." }, { "market": "copper", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If directional score drops into (-19 to +19) and conviction falls below 45." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, 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"neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 0, 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"dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.26, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 8, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly to copper from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "No explicit inventory-specific trend admitted; inventory effects treated as implicit/background only.", "A very recent negative-leaning legal/trade risk seed is treated as a reversal-risk contributor but did not meet high-trust kill-switch criteria." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }