- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-CU-6H-001 |
Bias modestly upward next 6h; energy-transition/industrial electrification demand leads, but late-cycle policy/trade noise raises fragility. |
56 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
61 |
| copper |
B-CU-24H-001 |
24h: Bullish tilt likely but conviction capped by elevated policy/legal headline risk and sparse, uneven fresh catalysts. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
61 |
| copper |
B-CU-6H-002 |
Near-term downside/whipsaw risk if trade-policy/legal signals broaden into actionable restrictions that hit risk appetite and cyclical demand. |
44 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
61 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260319-copper-070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-6H-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures bias remains modestly upward over the next 6 hours, led by energy-transition/industrial electrification demand themes, but with late-cycle policy/trade noise increasing fragility.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-6H-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-24H-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, copper remains more likely than not to hold a bullish tilt, but conviction is capped by elevated policy/legal headline risk and sparse, unevenly-distributed fresh catalysts.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-24H-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-6H-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term downside/whipsaw risk is meaningful if trade-policy/legal signals broaden into actionable restrictions or uncertainty that hits risk appetite and cyclical demand.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-6H-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CU-6H-001",
"B-CU-24H-001"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional bias is supported materially by persistent, longer-horizon demand narratives; near-term conviction is therefore capped."
},
{
"flag": "policy_trade_uncertainty",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Trade-policy and legal-regulatory themes are present and can create fast sentiment reversals."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_recent_window",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Fresh, high-authority, directly copper-price-linked catalysts are uneven in the last few hours; increases fragility."
},
{
"flag": "late_cycle_contradiction_uptick",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"note": "A very recent negative-tilt risk seed appears, but with low/unclear corroboration; monitored as reversal pressure rather than thesis invalidation."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with contradiction_ratio not rising (<= 0.35) and at least 2 fresh corroborations appear within the next 6h."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score falls below +20 OR contradiction_ratio rises above 0.50 with fresh opposing evidence in <= 2h."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid velocity swing (|velocity_score| >= 10) combined with rising contradiction_ratio (>= 0.45) across consecutive buckets."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains between -20 and +20 for >= 6 consecutive hours (rangebound signal regime)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope fixed to single market: copper (explicit target_market_code).",
"No prior market state memory provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
"Opposing late-cycle risk seed observed but did not meet high-trust criteria for thesis_kill_switch."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}