Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_in_core_arenas (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-19 18:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B1 | Near-term arabica price pressure is biased upward as shipping/logistics disruption narratives (Middle East routing risk + carrier/trade-flow friction) keep freight timing/availability uncertain for coffee supply chains. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B2 | Supply-side risk premium remains elevated (origin production risk + rising/uncertain production cost factors and labour/capacity constraints), supporting higher forward prices. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B3 | Demand tone stays constructive (consumer/retail expansion signals), limiting downside even if supply fears cool. | 52 | up | fading | 24h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B4 | Policy/trade-friction headlines can intermittently cap rallies (demand risk, compliance delays, or temporary flow re-routing), creating pullback risk after spikes. | 35 | down | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_coffee_20260319T180000Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term arabica price pressure is biased upward as shipping/logistics disruption narratives (Middle East routing risk + carrier/trade-flow friction) keep freight timing/availability uncertain for coffee supply chains.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-001",
"T-002",
"T-012",
"VIP-008",
"VIP-010"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B4"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Supply-side risk premium remains elevated (origin production risk + rising/uncertain production cost factors and labour/capacity constraints), supporting higher forward prices.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-009",
"T-011",
"T-014",
"T-008",
"RA-001"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B4"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand tone stays constructive (consumer/retail expansion signals), limiting downside even if supply fears cool.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-078",
"T-081",
"T-082"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B4"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B4",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Policy/trade-friction headlines can intermittently cap rallies (demand risk, compliance delays, or temporary flow re-routing), creating pullback risk after spikes.",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-015"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_core_arenas",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Signals skew toward logistics/policy/demand narrative; limited explicit weather/crop-condition granularity in admitted set."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Logistics/trade-flow headlines can flip quickly; some very-recent signals are single-source VIP lane."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_watch",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Upside bias is intact, but medium reversal risk due to mixed policy/trade effects and reliance on non-crop catalysts."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If logistics disruption signals persist/expand in the next cycle while no strong opposing (demand-destruction) evidence appears."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If additional shipping/trade policy headlines land within a 2\u20136h window (gap-risk / fast repricing)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence emerges that disruptions are resolving (or policy friction is easing) within <= 2h of the current read."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises materially (bullish vs bearish evidence balance compresses into neutral) and freshness confidence drops to low."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
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{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
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{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"directional_score_signed": 32,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
}
}