Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 4
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_in_core_arenas (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19 18:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Near-term arabica price pressure is biased upward as shipping/logistics disruption narratives (Middle East routing risk + carrier/trade-flow friction) keep freight timing/availability uncertain for coffee supply chains. 62 up accelerating 6h false 58
coffee B2 Supply-side risk premium remains elevated (origin production risk + rising/uncertain production cost factors and labour/capacity constraints), supporting higher forward prices. 58 up stable 24h false 58
coffee B3 Demand tone stays constructive (consumer/retail expansion signals), limiting downside even if supply fears cool. 52 up fading 24h false 58
coffee B4 Policy/trade-friction headlines can intermittently cap rallies (demand risk, compliance delays, or temporary flow re-routing), creating pullback risk after spikes. 35 down stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_coffee_20260319T180000Z_v1",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term arabica price pressure is biased upward as shipping/logistics disruption narratives (Middle East routing risk + carrier/trade-flow friction) keep freight timing/availability uncertain for coffee supply chains.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-001",
 "T-002",
 "T-012",
 "VIP-008",
 "VIP-010"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B4"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Supply-side risk premium remains elevated (origin production risk + rising/uncertain production cost factors and labour/capacity constraints), supporting higher forward prices.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-009",
 "T-011",
 "T-014",
 "T-008",
 "RA-001"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B4"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand tone stays constructive (consumer/retail expansion signals), limiting downside even if supply fears cool.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-078",
 "T-081",
 "T-082"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B4"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B4",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Policy/trade-friction headlines can intermittently cap rallies (demand risk, compliance delays, or temporary flow re-routing), creating pullback risk after spikes.",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-015"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_core_arenas",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Signals skew toward logistics/policy/demand narrative; limited explicit weather/crop-condition granularity in admitted set."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Logistics/trade-flow headlines can flip quickly; some very-recent signals are single-source VIP lane."
 },
 {
 "flag": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Upside bias is intact, but medium reversal risk due to mixed policy/trade effects and reliance on non-crop catalysts."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If logistics disruption signals persist/expand in the next cycle while no strong opposing (demand-destruction) evidence appears."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional shipping/trade policy headlines land within a 2\u20136h window (gap-risk / fast repricing)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence emerges that disruptions are resolving (or policy friction is easing) within <= 2h of the current read."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises materially (bullish vs bearish evidence balance compresses into neutral) and freshness confidence drops to low."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
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 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 32,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 }
}