Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B1 Coffee futures have a near-term upside bias as supply-risk narratives (climate anomalies / agricultural risk) dominate incremental signals. 58 up accelerating 6h false 72
coffee B2 Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain modestly biased higher, but gains are likely to be choppy due to mixed narrative tone (risk vs demand/marketing). 60 up stable 24h false 72
coffee B3 Short-horizon pullback/mean-reversion risk is elevated after a recent bullish push, with sentiment cooling slightly in the latest hours. 55 mixed stable 6h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260319T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures have a near-term upside bias as supply-risk narratives (climate anomalies / agricultural risk) dominate incremental signals.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather",
 "crop_conditions",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain modestly biased higher, but gains are likely to be choppy due to mixed narrative tone (risk vs demand/marketing).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather",
 "crop_conditions",
 "origin_supply",
 "shipping_freight",
 "consumer_demand_proxies"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Short-horizon pullback/mean-reversion risk is elevated after a recent bullish push, with sentiment cooling slightly in the latest hours.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "narrative_whipsaw",
 "data_sparsity",
 "mixed_signal_tone"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF_DATA_SPARSE_COFFEE",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "data_sparsity",
 "detail": "Directional read is supported by a limited set of coffee-explicit signals; many broader logistics/geopolitical items could not be confidently mapped to coffee under alias rules."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF_STALE_OVERHANG",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "stale_context_overhang",
 "detail": "Several supportive narratives are persistent/background (first detected earlier in the window), so conviction is capped and fragility remains elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF_MIXED_TONE_WHIPSAW",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "detail": "Supply-risk headlines and demand/consumer narratives both present; mixed tone can create fast reversals without clear confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF_REVERSAL_MEDIUM",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "reversal_watch",
 "detail": "Latest hours show a mild cooling from the bullish peak; a further drop in net sentiment would raise reversal risk."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while directional_score_signed remains >= +20 and fresh evidence count does not collapse to 0 across multiple buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Heightened volatility risk persists while contradiction_ratio stays elevated (~0.20+), especially around fresh supply-risk headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if the hourly directional_score_signed falls below +20 for 2+ consecutive buckets (bullish -> neutral transition risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If signal remains bullish but fragility stays >= 75 and fresh evidence remains sparse (<=1 per hour), treat as unstable and avoid over-interpreting direction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 2,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Several high-volume logistics/geopolitical trends were not mapped to coffee due to missing coffee-specific aliases; treated as background context only (unmapped).",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed versus an assumed neutral baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}