Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity
- generated_at: 2026-03-19 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B1 |
Coffee futures have a near-term upside bias as supply-risk narratives (climate anomalies / agricultural risk) dominate incremental signals. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B2 |
Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain modestly biased higher, but gains are likely to be choppy due to mixed narrative tone (risk vs demand/marketing). |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
72 |
| coffee |
B3 |
Short-horizon pullback/mean-reversion risk is elevated after a recent bullish push, with sentiment cooling slightly in the latest hours. |
55 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_coffee_20260319T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have a near-term upside bias as supply-risk narratives (climate anomalies / agricultural risk) dominate incremental signals.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"weather",
"crop_conditions",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, coffee futures remain modestly biased higher, but gains are likely to be choppy due to mixed narrative tone (risk vs demand/marketing).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather",
"crop_conditions",
"origin_supply",
"shipping_freight",
"consumer_demand_proxies"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Short-horizon pullback/mean-reversion risk is elevated after a recent bullish push, with sentiment cooling slightly in the latest hours.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"narrative_whipsaw",
"data_sparsity",
"mixed_signal_tone"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF_DATA_SPARSE_COFFEE",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "data_sparsity",
"detail": "Directional read is supported by a limited set of coffee-explicit signals; many broader logistics/geopolitical items could not be confidently mapped to coffee under alias rules."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF_STALE_OVERHANG",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "stale_context_overhang",
"detail": "Several supportive narratives are persistent/background (first detected earlier in the window), so conviction is capped and fragility remains elevated."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF_MIXED_TONE_WHIPSAW",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw",
"detail": "Supply-risk headlines and demand/consumer narratives both present; mixed tone can create fast reversals without clear confirmation."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF_REVERSAL_MEDIUM",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "reversal_watch",
"detail": "Latest hours show a mild cooling from the bullish peak; a further drop in net sentiment would raise reversal risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while directional_score_signed remains >= +20 and fresh evidence count does not collapse to 0 across multiple buckets."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Heightened volatility risk persists while contradiction_ratio stays elevated (~0.20+), especially around fresh supply-risk headlines."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if the hourly directional_score_signed falls below +20 for 2+ consecutive buckets (bullish -> neutral transition risk)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If signal remains bullish but fragility stays >= 75 and fresh evidence remains sparse (<=1 per hour), treat as unstable and avoid over-interpreting direction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 2,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Several high-volume logistics/geopolitical trends were not mapped to coffee due to missing coffee-specific aliases; treated as background context only (unmapped).",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed versus an assumed neutral baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}