Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike
- generated_at: 2026-03-19 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-001 |
Logistics/geopolitical disruption signals support higher coffee futures prices over next 24h (risk-premium). |
61 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
61 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-002 |
Ports/infrastructure improvements partially offset disruption-premium, capping upside over next 6–24h. |
46 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
61 |
| coffee |
B-COFFEE-003 |
Weather anomaly narratives support elevated price sensitivity and higher volatility in next 24h. |
58 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260319T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption signals (shipping lanes, trade-flow disruption narratives) are net supportive of higher coffee futures prices over the next 24h (risk-premium bid).",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Fresh 'ports / trade infrastructure' improvement signals partially offset disruption-premium and can cap upside in coffee futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Climate/weather anomaly narratives referenced by coffee-market/ICE-adjacent signals remain a supportive background factor for elevated coffee price sensitivity (higher volatility and upward skew) in the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"weather",
"crop_conditions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-COFFEE-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-COFFEE-001",
"B-COFFEE-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Fresh pro-flow (ports/infrastructure) signals conflict with disruption-premium narratives, increasing whipsaw risk."
},
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Multiple logistics-linked themes are active simultaneously (disruption vs resilience), raising short-horizon reversal odds."
},
{
"risk_flag": "domain_indirectness",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several admitted drivers are cross-commodity logistics/geopolitics proxies rather than coffee-specific fundamental prints; conviction capped."
},
{
"risk_flag": "volatility_elevation",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Mixed directional inputs + operational surge risk lane implies higher realised/expected volatility risk in the next 6\u201324h."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh disruption/shipping constraint mentions persist within the next 6h without equally fresh easing signals."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 'ports/infrastructure easing' theme continues to surge in the next 2\u20136h and begins to dominate recency-weighted evidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio remains elevated (>~0.40) with alternating bullish/bearish buckets."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse (fresh_evidence_count ~0 across multiple buckets) while contradiction remains non-trivial."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing signal appears that directly references coffee supply/demand fundamentals and flips net sentiment negative."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
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"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T18:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:30:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:30:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 16,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"No explicit per-trend v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided; synthesis uses available timestamps, velocity_hint, novelty, and thematic polarity proxies.",
"Several signals are indirect (logistics/geopolitics) rather than coffee-specific fundamentals; conviction capped and reversal risk elevated to medium."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}