Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19 06:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-COFFEE-001 Logistics/geopolitical disruption signals support higher coffee futures prices over next 24h (risk-premium). 61 up stable 24h false 61
coffee B-COFFEE-002 Ports/infrastructure improvements partially offset disruption-premium, capping upside over next 6–24h. 46 down accelerating 6h false 61
coffee B-COFFEE-003 Weather anomaly narratives support elevated price sensitivity and higher volatility in next 24h. 58 mixed fading 24h false 61

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260319T060000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term logistics/geopolitical disruption signals (shipping lanes, trade-flow disruption narratives) are net supportive of higher coffee futures prices over the next 24h (risk-premium bid).",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Fresh 'ports / trade infrastructure' improvement signals partially offset disruption-premium and can cap upside in coffee futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-001",
 "B-COFFEE-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Climate/weather anomaly narratives referenced by coffee-market/ICE-adjacent signals remain a supportive background factor for elevated coffee price sensitivity (higher volatility and upward skew) in the next 24h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather",
 "crop_conditions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-COFFEE-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-COFFEE-001",
 "B-COFFEE-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Fresh pro-flow (ports/infrastructure) signals conflict with disruption-premium narratives, increasing whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Multiple logistics-linked themes are active simultaneously (disruption vs resilience), raising short-horizon reversal odds."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "domain_indirectness",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several admitted drivers are cross-commodity logistics/geopolitics proxies rather than coffee-specific fundamental prints; conviction capped."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "volatility_elevation",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Mixed directional inputs + operational surge risk lane implies higher realised/expected volatility risk in the next 6\u201324h."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh disruption/shipping constraint mentions persist within the next 6h without equally fresh easing signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 'ports/infrastructure easing' theme continues to surge in the next 2\u20136h and begins to dominate recency-weighted evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio remains elevated (>~0.40) with alternating bullish/bearish buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If incoming evidence becomes sparse (fresh_evidence_count ~0 across multiple buckets) while contradiction remains non-trivial."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority, very fresh (<=2h) opposing signal appears that directly references coffee supply/demand fundamentals and flips net sentiment negative."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T06:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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 "buckets": [
 {
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 {
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 {
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.44,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 16,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "No explicit per-trend v2 trend_physics/trend_state_memory fields provided; synthesis uses available timestamps, velocity_hint, novelty, and thematic polarity proxies.",
 "Several signals are indirect (logistics/geopolitics) rather than coffee-specific fundamentals; conviction capped and reversal risk elevated to medium."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}