Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T22:01:31Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h |
Geopolitical escalation risk (Iran/US and regional security narratives) is sustaining a near-term risk premium biasing Brent futures upward over the next 6 hours. |
60 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-shipping_chokepoints-24h |
Chokepoint/logistics constraint narratives (maritime risk and rerouting) are keeping upside skew elevated over the next 24 hours, even if spot headlines fade. |
57 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-inventory_balance-soften-24h |
Physical inventory/supply indicator narratives are a plausible cap on sustained upside over the next 24 hours (i.e., price support is more headline-driven than balance-driven). |
54 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
62 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude_oil-macro_usd_rates-cap-24h |
Macro policy / USD-rate narrative is a two-sided force that can trigger fast pullbacks (risk-on/off and USD strength effects), raising reversal risk versus a clean bullish trend over 24 hours. |
55 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260319T220131Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T22:01:31Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation risk (Iran/US and regional security narratives) is sustaining a near-term risk premium biasing Brent futures upward over the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"supply_disruption",
"shipping_freight"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude_oil-macro_usd_rates-cap-24h"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-shipping_chokepoints-24h",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Chokepoint/logistics constraint narratives (maritime risk and rerouting) are keeping upside skew elevated over the next 24 hours, even if spot headlines fade.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude_oil-inventory_balance-soften-24h"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-inventory_balance-soften-24h",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Physical inventory/supply indicator narratives are a plausible cap on sustained upside over the next 24 hours (i.e., price support is more headline-driven than balance-driven).",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"inventory"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h",
"B-crude_oil-shipping_chokepoints-24h"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude_oil-macro_usd_rates-cap-24h",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro policy / USD-rate narrative is a two-sided force that can trigger fast pullbacks (risk-on/off and USD strength effects), raising reversal risk versus a clean bullish trend over 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude_oil-geo_risk_premium-6h",
"B-crude_oil-shipping_chokepoints-24h",
"B-crude_oil-macro_usd_rates-cap-24h"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitics/shipping risk-premium signals are strong but coexist with macro-policy/USD narratives that can flip intraday sentiment."
},
{
"flag": "data_quality_dispersion",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Core trend clusters show strong Tier-A presence, but several VIP/risk items are single-source/low-diversity; treat them as early warnings not anchors."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_watch",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Momentum appears to be fading after earlier peaks; mixed macro/inventory framing can trigger pullbacks despite bullish geopolitics."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) corroborated escalation / disruption evidence persists while macro signals do not intensify, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a high-authority macro surprise or credible de-escalation headline arrives within <=2h, shift to reversal_watch (bullish thesis fragility rises)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If inventory indicators become dominant and consistently point to easing balances, consider stay_flat (signal becomes mixed/rangebound)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil (Brent).",
"Directional bias dominated by geopolitics/shipping risk-premium mapping; macro/inventory narratives increase fragility and reversal risk.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio reflects mixed driver arenas and uneven authority mix in admitted evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}