Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-001: weakening_momentum_recent_hours
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Brent-linked crude is biased higher over the next 6–24h as Iran/regional security headlines and maritime-route risk sustain a supply-risk premium. 63 up fading 24h false 58
crude_oil B-crude-002 Near-term supply-side tightness themes (refinery outages/incidents) add upside support to crude into the next 24h window. 57 up stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B-crude-003 Demand/macro policy and regulatory headlines increase the odds of a pullback or stall even if the supply-risk premium persists. 46 mixed accelerating 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-03-19T19:00:00Z-crude_oil", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Brent-linked crude is biased higher over the next 6\u201324h as Iran/regional security headlines and maritime-route risk sustain a supply-risk premium.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Iran geopolitical conflict cluster (high volume, broad pickup)", "Maritime security / chokepoint risk language (Hormuz-adjacent narrative)", "Military escalation headlines (risk premium persistence)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Macro-demand headwind / recession-risk narrative", "Regulatory/legal overhang headlines (policy uncertainty)", "Potential fast de-escalation / headline reversal risk" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term supply-side tightness themes (refinery outages/incidents) add upside support to crude into the next 24h window.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Saudi Aramco refinery outage storyline (sustained coverage)", "Kuwait downstream incident signal (single-source but aligned with tightness narrative)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Inventory signals are thin / single-source and may flip", "If outages are clarified as non-material, support weakens" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Demand/macro policy and regulatory headlines increase the odds of a pullback or stall even if the supply-risk premium persists.", "probability_pct": 46, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Macro policy uncertainty cluster (Fed/central bank policy references)", "Recession-risk narrative (low breadth in this 24h slice, but present as a background theme)", "EPA/legal-regulatory items (thin evidence but can swing sentiment)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Geopolitical escalation flow remains the dominant near-term driver" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-001", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "weakening_momentum_recent_hours", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional score remains positive but has decayed materially in the last ~6h buckets versus earlier peak." }, { "flag_id": "RF-002", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Geopolitical risk-premium narratives can reverse quickly on de-escalation/clarification; maintain elevated reversal watch." }, { "flag_id": "RF-003", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "single_source_fragility", "severity": "low", "details": "Multiple VIP/risk items (inventories/chokepoints/incidents) are singleton sources; treat as weak confirmers unless corroborated." }, { "flag_id": "RF-004", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "macro_demand_headwind", "severity": "low", "details": "Macro/recession framing appears as a counterweight; not dominant in the freshest cluster but can cap follow-through." }, { "flag_id": "RF-005", "market": "crude_oil", "type": "authority_mix_risk", "severity": "low", "details": "High-volume clusters contain a meaningful low-authority share; conviction capped despite breadth." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority reports corroborate material supply disruption / chokepoint impairment within the next 6h." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Any confirmed escalation/de-escalation headline, shipping incident, or clarification of outage magnitude." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-authority counter-signal emerges (e.g., de-escalation, non-event outage clarification, or clear inventory build) and contradiction rises." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If signals remain mixed with declining net directional score and no new corroboration for the supply-risk thesis." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-18T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-18T21:00:00Z", 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"neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T16:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T17:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T17:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T18:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T18:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 3, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 25, "net_sentiment_score": 3, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 63, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 18, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil (single-market enforced).", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; reversal risk inferred from mixed driver arenas and weakening net score in the most recent buckets.", "Prior state unavailable; state_change set as new_bullish versus neutral baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }