Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_spike
  • generated_at: 2026-03-19T06:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-001 Near-term geopolitics and maritime security risk (Hormuz/Gulf of Oman shipping risk, Iran/US/Israel escalation headlines) is maintaining an upward risk-premium bias in Brent. 66 up accelerating 6h false 76
crude_oil B-crude-002 Event-driven volatility remains elevated; sharp pullbacks are plausible even if the base direction stays higher, because the move is headline-led and sensitive to incremental updates. 62 mixed stable 24h false 76
crude_oil B-crude-003 Macro-policy messaging is a secondary (lower-weight) headwind/tailwind channel versus the dominant geopolitics/shipping shock; net impact on Brent direction over the next day is likely smaller than the risk-premium driver. 58 flat fading 24h false 76

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-20260319T061000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T06:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term geopolitics and maritime security risk (Hormuz/Gulf of Oman shipping risk, Iran/US/Israel escalation headlines) is maintaining an upward risk-premium bias in Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitics",
 "shipping_freight",
 "supply_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Rapid de-escalation / credible security guarantees restoring flows",
 "Evidence of compensating supply reroutes materially offsetting disruption risk"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Event-driven volatility remains elevated; sharp pullbacks are plausible even if the base direction stays higher, because the move is headline-led and sensitive to incremental updates.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitics",
 "shipping_freight",
 "narrative_whipsaw_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Sustained multi-source confirmation of physical disruption (persistent outages / sustained attacks / prolonged closure risk) reducing two-way risk"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro-policy messaging is a secondary (lower-weight) headwind/tailwind channel versus the dominant geopolitics/shipping shock; net impact on Brent direction over the next day is likely smaller than the risk-premium driver.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Unexpectedly large macro data surprise materially shifting demand expectations within the window"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-001",
 "B-crude-002",
 "B-crude-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "event_driven_spike",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Direction is supported by very recent, fast-moving geopolitics/shipping-risk headlines; two-way risk is elevated."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "reversal_risk_high",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "High sensitivity to incremental de-escalation/confirmation headlines; price-risk premium can unwind quickly."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "VIP/risk-anomaly lane contains multiple single-source items; these are downweighted versus multi-source trend clusters."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "authority_mix_variance",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Some inventory/supply-chain related evidence bundles show higher low-authority share; conviction capped vs a purely Tier-A feed."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional multi-source confirmation of shipping disruption / escalatory actions in or near key chokepoints within the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Continued headline cadence on tanker incidents, military manoeuvres, or war-risk insurance/shipping re-routing updates."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation signals or explicit confirmations of normalised flows (or successful large-scale bypass/reroute capacity) within the next 24h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If conflicting signals rise materially (contradiction spike) while fresh evidence count drops, implying unclear direction."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 ]
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
 "No explicit contradictions object provided; contradiction_ratio is conservatively inferred from mixed sentiment/authority dispersion and headline-driven whipsaw risk.",
 "Overlay permissions indicate authoritative_news_pull=false; output uses provided cached evidence/trend summaries only.",
 "Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change computed against an assumed neutral baseline (logged here)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}