Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_spike
- generated_at: 2026-03-19T06:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Near-term geopolitics and maritime security risk (Hormuz/Gulf of Oman shipping risk, Iran/US/Israel escalation headlines) is maintaining an upward risk-premium bias in Brent. | 66 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 76 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Event-driven volatility remains elevated; sharp pullbacks are plausible even if the base direction stays higher, because the move is headline-led and sensitive to incremental updates. | 62 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 76 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Macro-policy messaging is a secondary (lower-weight) headwind/tailwind channel versus the dominant geopolitics/shipping shock; net impact on Brent direction over the next day is likely smaller than the risk-premium driver. | 58 | flat | fading | 24h | false | 76 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-6B-20260319T061000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-19T06:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term geopolitics and maritime security risk (Hormuz/Gulf of Oman shipping risk, Iran/US/Israel escalation headlines) is maintaining an upward risk-premium bias in Brent.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping_freight",
"supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Rapid de-escalation / credible security guarantees restoring flows",
"Evidence of compensating supply reroutes materially offsetting disruption risk"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Event-driven volatility remains elevated; sharp pullbacks are plausible even if the base direction stays higher, because the move is headline-led and sensitive to incremental updates.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitics",
"shipping_freight",
"narrative_whipsaw_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Sustained multi-source confirmation of physical disruption (persistent outages / sustained attacks / prolonged closure risk) reducing two-way risk"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro-policy messaging is a secondary (lower-weight) headwind/tailwind channel versus the dominant geopolitics/shipping shock; net impact on Brent direction over the next day is likely smaller than the risk-premium driver.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Unexpectedly large macro data surprise materially shifting demand expectations within the window"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-001",
"B-crude-002",
"B-crude-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "event_driven_spike",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Direction is supported by very recent, fast-moving geopolitics/shipping-risk headlines; two-way risk is elevated."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "reversal_risk_high",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "High sensitivity to incremental de-escalation/confirmation headlines; price-risk premium can unwind quickly."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "single_source_outlier_noise",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "VIP/risk-anomaly lane contains multiple single-source items; these are downweighted versus multi-source trend clusters."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "authority_mix_variance",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Some inventory/supply-chain related evidence bundles show higher low-authority share; conviction capped vs a purely Tier-A feed."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional multi-source confirmation of shipping disruption / escalatory actions in or near key chokepoints within the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Continued headline cadence on tanker incidents, military manoeuvres, or war-risk insurance/shipping re-routing updates."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation signals or explicit confirmations of normalised flows (or successful large-scale bypass/reroute capacity) within the next 24h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If conflicting signals rise materially (contradiction spike) while fresh evidence count drops, implying unclear direction."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"crude_oil"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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{
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]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-19T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-19T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.",
"No explicit contradictions object provided; contradiction_ratio is conservatively inferred from mixed sentiment/authority dispersion and headline-driven whipsaw risk.",
"Overlay permissions indicate authoritative_news_pull=false; output uses provided cached evidence/trend summaries only.",
"Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change computed against an assumed neutral baseline (logged here)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}